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Yeah, kinda hard to use that as an example of battery prices going down without knowing the details of what was replaced and labor costs. And going strong can turn to dead as a doornail overnight. How long it lasts is also a big factor. $7500 is better, but still a lot of cash.
But remember, you assured me they would drop. I'm counting on you. I fully expect, by 2030, to replace one at Home Depot for about tree fiddy.
Yeah, kinda hard to use that as an example of battery prices going down without knowing the details of what was replaced and labor costs. And going strong can turn to dead as a doornail overnight. How long it lasts is also a big factor. $7500 is better, but still a lot of cash.
But remember, you assured me they would drop. I'm counting on you. I fully expect, by 2030, to replace one at Home Depot for about tree fiddy.
Hey man, rely on my advice at your own risk 🤣
They probably changed whole modules, how many I don't know. The price of battery packs has definitely gone down significantly, which is one reason Tesla can cut prices so deeply as the do. When it comes to replacement costs, they are high at the moment, but I believe as more EV battery packs reach end of life and need to be prepared for resale, economies of scale will take place. Being in IT, as an example, when the flat screen monitors first came out, they were freaking expensive. A 14" was over $500. Today you can pick up a good 20" for under $100. I believe strongly the same thing will happen with EV's with depleted battery packs....there will be enough of them, and with battery recycling companies popping up, a refreshed battery pack will give them new life. Just a guess, but someday used EV's will also probably make their way to poor countries.
And if I'm wrong, sue me. I'll make sure to declare bankruptcy so you don't get a penny 😂
They probably changed whole modules, how many I don't know. The price of battery packs has definitely gone down significantly, which is one reason Tesla can cut prices so deeply as the do. When it comes to replacement costs, they are high at the moment, but I believe as more EV battery packs reach end of life and need to be prepared for resale, economies of scale will take place. Being in IT, as an example, when the flat screen monitors first came out, they were freaking expensive. A 14" was over $500. Today you can pick up a good 20" for under $100. I believe strongly the same thing will happen with EV's with depleted battery packs....there will be enough of them, and with battery recycling companies popping up, a refreshed battery pack will give them new life. Just a guess, but someday used EV's will also probably make their way to poor countries.
And if I'm wrong, sue me. I'll make sure to declare bankruptcy so you don't get a penny 😂
The principle you're describing here is known as "Wright's Law". It states that for every doubling of cumulative production (total number of units/volume produced in history), cost is reduced by a constant amount that is pretty stable per industry--but varies between industries--somewhere from the high single-digit % up to around 30%, but most often somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%. History has shown us that this constant for Lithium Ion batteries is approximately 18%. In the past 10 years, as cumulative production has expanded massively, Li-Ion battery production cost has dropped by 82%
Bloomberg published an article today stating that some of the SC team that was laid off has been rehired including Max de Zegher the Director of NA Super Charging. I'd link but it's paywalled
The principle you're describing here is known as "Wright's Law". It states that for every doubling of cumulative production (total number of units/volume produced in history), cost is reduced by a constant amount that is pretty stable per industry--but varies between industries--somewhere from the high single-digit % up to around 30%, but most often somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%. History has shown us that this constant for Lithium Ion batteries is approximately 18%. In the past 10 years, as cumulative production has expanded massively, Li-Ion battery production cost has dropped by 82%
Bloomberg published an article today stating that some of the SC team that was laid off has been rehired including Max de Zegher the Director of NA Super Charging. I'd link but it's paywalled
Curious how the Tesla fans spins this. Fire people to later rehire them weeks later....somehow this will be considered a genius move.
You can't define anything by the edge cases. Very few EVs are going the best part of 400,000 miles in 8 years, and very few ICE cars are going the best part of 400,000 miles in 8 years. For most customers most of the time battery replacement simply isn't a concern.
and the example quoted was (very unusually) charged with a supercharger 80% of the time which i'm sure WILL shorten battery life some.
Curious how the Tesla fans spins this. Fire people to later rehire them weeks later....somehow this will be considered a genius move.
There's no way to credibly spin it - it's just asinine from start to finish. Absolutely lends credence to the reports at the time that it was yet another Musk knee jerk when the overall business unit leader refused to go along with his edict.
The only positive spin is that maybe at least he's realized it was dumb.
and the example quoted was (very unusually) charged with a supercharger 80% of the time which i'm sure WILL shorten battery life some.
yes that's absolutely right, although I have seen reports that the impact of DC fast charging might not be quite as bad as was once suspected, particularly on newer battery chemistries and with modern battery management. Still, if you're mostly sticking to L2 charging at home and only occasionally dipping into fast charging you're probably looking at even better odds of a long battery life.
yes that's absolutely right, although I have seen reports that the impact of DC fast charging might not be quite as bad as was once suspected, particularly on newer battery chemistries and with modern battery management. Still, if you're mostly sticking to L2 charging at home and only occasionally dipping into fast charging you're probably looking at even better odds of a long battery life.
So far it seems it is important not to charge to 100% often, actual fast charging helps with many things, as long as you don't charge to full.
There is a reason that Tesla now visibly recommends to 80% for daily charging .
Bloomberg published an article today stating that some of the SC team that was laid off has been rehired including Max de Zegher the Director of NA Super Charging. I'd link but it's paywalled
Curious how the Tesla fans spins this. Fire people to later rehire them weeks later....somehow this will be considered a genius move.
I don't think you are going to find anyone here who can spin it any other way than it was a stupid move, especially viewing from the outside. Firing the whole SC team then hiring some of them back means backfired, realized mistake, reverse course. Just knowing Tesla as a company, I knew in the end everything will fine, even though things didn't have to transpire the way they did. Tesla needed to do some cutting, but the way they did it was just pure stupid
05-13-24, 10:30 AM
