LeX2K

Okay I'll put it another way
1) how long do you plan to hold some TSLA
2) assuming longer term which of the 3 choices will be #1 in revenue in 2030

Elon Musk says AI and robotics will dwarf the car only business, this includes robotaxi. I don't understand your comment of not needing to be all in on the vision aka business strategy to invest. This makes no sense to me, that's like saying I am not all in on McDonald's selling as many happy meals as possible but I'm still going to invest.

SW17LS

But you said yourself Elon doesn't want to sell "as many Teslas as possible"..."not chasing volume"...

LeX2K

Exactly. McD's wants to shove as a many burgers down your throat as possible they have little interest in anything else. Toyota wants to make 10 million cars/year or more that is their only ambition. Tesla's ambitions are far far greater than pure volume of cars.

Elon Musk is telling people this straight up in no uncertain terms, yet I see so many people still wanting Tesla to just make as many cars as possible that's it. If you want that don't invest in Tesla. Period. There are dozens of car companies that chase volume buy their stock.

AMIRZA786

Now you're moving goal posts. I do believe 100 percent in Tesla's AI and Robotics vision, but today it's not Tesla's main revenue source, car sales are. It's what's funding AI and Robotics development, which again I 100 percent support. Am I wrong? Secondly, what if God forbid Elon is gone, will the next CEO carry out that vision? Just this year alone, at least 5 people I know who were way to young died suddenly. So if something happens to Elon, does that mean Tesla as a company is finished? Or does it just turn into just another car company?

I invest in companies that are stable, have revenue streams have cutting edge technology, and even excite me, though Apple was the exception, it never excited me. Which is why I invested in Tesla in 2020, I saw some of my friends Model 3's, thought it was the coolest car, saw the demand, and needed somewhere to park my bonus.

Like McDonald's, Toyota doesn't excite me, even if they sell more cars. And their stock has gone almost nowhere in 5 years, unlike Tesla, which is why I invested in them. Same reason I don't invest in GM or Ford, their stock has gone nowhere.

As a friend, I would never tell you where or where not to invest your money, so I'm expecting the same courtesy. But I do appreciate your concern

AMIRZA786

And let me ask you this one last question. What if I hundred percent didn't believe in Tesla's full vision, I just liked the fact that they sell the most profitable car, built a huge market cap in a short period, bought shares and made 10 X on my investment? Was I wrong to invest?

LeX2K

I'm not trying to do that. As I talked about awhile back I had an epiphany and in hindsight what took me so long. How many cars Tesla makes and sells foundationally doesn't matter, the business is no longer in the vacuum of the auto only sector. It's what brought Tesla to where they are now but the over arching strategy is 100x more ambitious. Put another way, volume of cars will be driven by AI the cars won't simply be something Tesla puts AI in. Critical distinction.
You are "wrong" to keep seeing this as a reason to buy the TSLA. If volume is what drove an automotive stock then Toyota would be a 3 trillion dollar company.
Of course they will turn into just another car company. Look at every other car company they are just that, another car company.
I started buying TSLA because I felt EVs were the future and Tesla would lead. That is not the reason I continue to accumulate the stock.
I've only ever told you to sell TSLA not buy.
Firstly, you haven't lost or made a dime until you actually sell a given stock. I know this should be obvious but I see so many people say, hey I just made X amount then the stock goes down 50% and they are miserable. Second, Tesla's valuation is where it is in large part because of expectations beyond just the car business. If Tesla was only valued for selling cars and had nothing else going on it would be like TM.

AMIRZA786

I totally agree with the last part, TM just doesn't make exciting cars. They just make cars. Tesla sells less cars, but have a much bigger market cap because Tesla owners actually love their cars, and other reasons, I'll just leave it there. When I used the 10 X example, I meant that they sold and made 10 X.

I've always looked at owning stock long term, meaning 5 years or more. The only reason I now I even look at the stock day to day is thanks to this thread. As far as TSLA being a long term investment, for me this is a good one, it meets all my criteria. When I say I'm selling at $350, it's not because I want out or don't believe in the company, it's I need cash for an upcoming purchase next year. So I need to cash out, and if the stock hits $350, I won't need to move any other funds to cover it

LeX2K

Having two trading accounts has kept me sane. One is my HODL account I have sold zero shares the other is my gambling account. Investing takes extreme discipline that's why 99% of people lose money they panic and sell. Steve Ballmer is worth more than Bill Gates because he held almost all of this MSFT all these years. Bill Gates didn't.

If you want to see an example of what not to do check out this guy
https://x.com/teslaeconomist

I feel bad for him he became extremely bearish and sold most if not all of this Tesla stock when it was flirting with $100. I know the impulse can be overwhelming you see your fave stock tanking and think, I should get out before it gets worse. That is in fact the time to buy, do the opposite of what your emo side wants. Dealing with the psychology of investing is the hardest thing I've ever done.

Back to Tesla the business they've made progress on the 4680 cell it's now about 11% better should be able to get another 10% energy density in the next 1-2 years. I anticipate this cell will be in the next generation vehicle, maybe not to begin with but ultimately.

AMIRZA786

Good advice. I also have two trading accounts, one is retirement I don't touch, one I treat more like a savings account. I try my best not to gamble

Glad Tesla is finally making a breakthrough with their 4680 cell. Should benefit me next year when I pick up my M3P

LeX2K

Pretty sure M3P is using Panasonic cells.

swajames

Well the primary reasons Steve Ballmer is now worth more than Bill Gates are because Ballmer never got divorced and because Gates is more actively philanthropic.

AMIRZA786

Sorry, you are right, forgot about that

LeX2K

Actually my post wasn't clear I meant Panasonic 1865 cells, Panasonic will be making 4680 cells.

On the M3P a few people have looked at live data the car is actually producing at least 600hp.

AMIRZA786

Today I've already seen three M3P's. Every review has been solid, and people who have driven it say it's a super car when in Insane mode

geko29

This quick stat doesn't tell the whole story. Ballmer isn't 0.3% richer (yes that's the actual figure) than Gates solely because Gates sold some of his MSFT to diversify his portfolio. It's also because Gates has donated $60B to his foundation so far, plus paid out an unspecified divorce settlement a few years ago, along with an additional $12.5B for Melinda to start her own separate foundation. So that's $72B plus the divorce settlement that's no longer part of his net worth.

Ballmer is also engaged in philanthropy, but has structured his charity differently. The Ballmer Group runs as a family office that manages the funds he's set aside for charity, but that $85B is still considered part of his net worth until it's actually given away.