jrmckinley

The stock already took the appropriate hit for those Q1 numbers. That chart was shared (not by me) to show how "TSLA always has a better Q2 than Q1" (apparently all auto companies stair step in sales from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 to Q4), but that chart showing 8 full years (32 quarters) of data doesn't show that once for Tesla. It appears this Q2 would be the only time out of 34 quarters of data that has ever happened.

The debate, which I am politely exiting, is about AJ on X posting QoQ numbers instead of YoY numbers because "that's how we always compare auto companies" and apparently he is a "stock shill" and not an analyst. Never mind the fact that the chart that was shared clearly proves that TSLA has never once performed like any other auto company in stair-stepping of quarters for an entire year. So it makes no sense to me to keep trying to compare them to all other auto companies. #Moneyball

I digress. And no you didn't miss anything..!

jrmckinley

Thanks for sharing. I have no issue with him sticking to his guns and explaining his rationale for his PREDICTIONS of where TSLA will land in a given quarter. I can't see the full post in the last shot you sent where it looks like he will go on to explain why he wants to compare Q1 24 to Q1 23. Maybe he moved the goal posts there; I would admit that if I could see it. But I can't read the full post so can't fully comment.

But you have your opinion on him from reading a few posts, and I have mine from following him for almost 18 months and reading coverage of every auto manufacturer. I also follow Ross Gerber, Gary Black, and Cathie Wood for their counter points on TSLA stock in particular. GordonJohnson19 on X might be an "analyst" of interest to you. He has been calling for a $20 price target on TSLA for about 8 years now. He's like the meteorologist in San Diego who tells you every day for 8 years it's going to snow tomorrow, but still gets air time. Perhaps he will point out all of the things you are interested in.

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

Him calling others predictions "nonsense" when their prediction ended up being much closer makes him look silly imo. Makes it seem like his prediction is right and any other people opinion is inferior. Here is the full post:
"US is likely around 108K to 110K vs prior year 103K. This is Jan + Feb. There is some concern that new M3 supply might not be enough to satisfy all demand but this is a very short term way of thinking.
You have to compare against Q1'23. This has become increasingly important as Tesla became a large automaker. Previously, qoq was fine but you should move away from this now since auto has significant seasonality at larger scale.".

So we should move away from QoQ in April but in July we should move back to QoQ because its convenient for him.

I don't really use X and only go to Troy twitter page for his predictions before the end of every quarter. He remains imo fairly unbiased. He praises Tesla when they are doing good and call them out when the numbers look bad. Troy prediction for Q1 was 409k. When the numbers came out he didn't make excuses and claims that it isn't a demand problem (like Alojoh). When he says anything bad he gets chastised. X is almost down to an echo chamber of Tesla fans....which makes sense since its owned by Musk lol.

Allen K

iTrader: (4)

One thing to consider is that Tesla is (relatively) unique in that they can adjust their pricing nationwide at any given time. If Q2 numbers are low heading into the last month, they can offer incentives to boost those numbers and because they're direct, you know up front what you're paying.

Traditional dealers can offer incentives as well, but you still have to deal with the dealerships and the games they like to play. Plus consumers have been conditioned to wait for the larger events (e..g Toyotathon) to purchase

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

Yep, we have already seen it being done. Stating prices will increase by 1,000 in April or offering 0% apr. It should work better than dealer incentives just because of Tesla marketing power.