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can't follow (or don't have time to thoroughly digest) all these recent posts, but the graph swajames posted does seem to show that q1 '24 was worse in terms of # of deliveries than q1 '23, which hasn't been true for any yoy period before. that's not good. negative growth means alarm bells for a stock so highly priced already. or am i missing something?
The stock already took the appropriate hit for those Q1 numbers. That chart was shared (not by me) to show how "TSLA always has a better Q2 than Q1" (apparently all auto companies stair step in sales from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 to Q4), but that chart showing 8 full years (32 quarters) of data doesn't show that once for Tesla. It appears this Q2 would be the only time out of 34 quarters of data that has ever happened.
The debate, which I am politely exiting, is about AJ on X posting QoQ numbers instead of YoY numbers because "that's how we always compare auto companies" and apparently he is a "stock shill" and not an analyst. Never mind the fact that the chart that was shared clearly proves that TSLA has never once performed like any other auto company in stair-stepping of quarters for an entire year. So it makes no sense to me to keep trying to compare them to all other auto companies. #Moneyball
Calling someone argument nonsense because they expected much lower unit sales. There was another tweet I am not able to find where he said a similar thing when someone else said people will be negatively surprised when Tesla releases Q1 sales and he again called that nonsense and stuck to his 422k estimate. https://x.com/alojoh/status/1772202004959379941
Here he is saying you should not compare QoQ (q4 2023 to Q1 2024)...but now since it's convenient he is comparing Q1 2024 and Q2 2024 lmao. Clearly a shill and will spin any negative news into a positive or an excuse. https://x.com/alojoh/status/1771280307284488473
Thanks for sharing. I have no issue with him sticking to his guns and explaining his rationale for his PREDICTIONS of where TSLA will land in a given quarter. I can't see the full post in the last shot you sent where it looks like he will go on to explain why he wants to compare Q1 24 to Q1 23. Maybe he moved the goal posts there; I would admit that if I could see it. But I can't read the full post so can't fully comment.
But you have your opinion on him from reading a few posts, and I have mine from following him for almost 18 months and reading coverage of every auto manufacturer. I also follow Ross Gerber, Gary Black, and Cathie Wood for their counter points on TSLA stock in particular. GordonJohnson19 on X might be an "analyst" of interest to you. He has been calling for a $20 price target on TSLA for about 8 years now. He's like the meteorologist in San Diego who tells you every day for 8 years it's going to snow tomorrow, but still gets air time. Perhaps he will point out all of the things you are interested in.
Thanks for sharing. I have no issue with him sticking to his guns and explaining his rationale for his PREDICTIONS of where TSLA will land in a given quarter. I can't see the full post in the last shot you sent where it looks like he will go on to explain why he wants to compare Q1 24 to Q1 23. Maybe he moved the goal posts there; I would admit that if I could see it. But I can't read the full post so can't fully comment.
But you have your opinion on him from reading a few posts, and I have mine from following him for almost 18 months and reading coverage of every auto manufacturer. I also follow Ross Gerber, Gary Black, and Cathie Wood for their counter points on TSLA stock in particular. GordonJohnson19 on X might be an "analyst" of interest to you. He has been calling for a $20 price target on TSLA for about 8 years now. He's like the meteorologist in San Diego who tells you every day for 8 years it's going to snow tomorrow, but still gets air time. Perhaps he will point out all of the things you are interested in.
Him calling others predictions "nonsense" when their prediction ended up being much closer makes him look silly imo. Makes it seem like his prediction is right and any other people opinion is inferior. Here is the full post:
"US is likely around 108K to 110K vs prior year 103K. This is Jan + Feb. There is some concern that new M3 supply might not be enough to satisfy all demand but this is a very short term way of thinking.
You have to compare against Q1'23. This has become increasingly important as Tesla became a large automaker. Previously, qoq was fine but you should move away from this now since auto has significant seasonality at larger scale.".
So we should move away from QoQ in April but in July we should move back to QoQ because its convenient for him.
I don't really use X and only go to Troy twitter page for his predictions before the end of every quarter. He remains imo fairly unbiased. He praises Tesla when they are doing good and call them out when the numbers look bad. Troy prediction for Q1 was 409k. When the numbers came out he didn't make excuses and claims that it isn't a demand problem (like Alojoh). When he says anything bad he gets chastised. X is almost down to an echo chamber of Tesla fans....which makes sense since its owned by Musk lol.
One thing to consider is that Tesla is (relatively) unique in that they can adjust their pricing nationwide at any given time. If Q2 numbers are low heading into the last month, they can offer incentives to boost those numbers and because they're direct, you know up front what you're paying.
Traditional dealers can offer incentives as well, but you still have to deal with the dealerships and the games they like to play. Plus consumers have been conditioned to wait for the larger events (e..g Toyotathon) to purchase
One thing to consider is that Tesla is (relatively) unique in that they can adjust their pricing nationwide at any given time. If Q2 numbers are low heading into the last month, they can offer incentives to boost those numbers and because they're direct, you know up front what you're paying.
Traditional dealers can offer incentives as well, but you still have to deal with the dealerships and the games they like to play. Plus consumers have been conditioned to wait for the larger events (e..g Toyotathon) to purchase
Yep, we have already seen it being done. Stating prices will increase by 1,000 in April or offering 0% apr. It should work better than dealer incentives just because of Tesla marketing power.
Tesla issues software fix for 1.8 million vehicles over hood latch issue
A recall notice was issued because the vehicles could fail to detect an unlatched hood, which could suddenly fly open.
July 30, 2024 at 9:00 a.m. EDTTesla has issued a software fix to the vast majority of its U.S. vehicles over the risk that the car’s software could fail to detect an unlatched hood, which could fly open and obstruct the driver’s view, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The over-the-air-update, formally described by NHTSA as a product recall, applies to more than 1.85 million vehicles from model years 2017 through 2024 across the Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y product lines, as well as certain Model S and Model X vehicles from earlier years.
It’s the latest large-scale product recall involving software problems for Tesla. The company issued software updates for almost all of its U.S. vehicles last December, to add more safeguards for its Autopilot system, and in February to address a problem with font sizes on its instrument panel.
A new Tesla prototype, rumored to be the upcoming Model Y Juniper refresh, has leaked from the factory.
After the Model 3 refresh launched last year, there have been many rumors about a Model Y refresh to follow.
It started last year with a Reuters report that claimed Tesla was planning a Model Y refresh called Juniper to come out in 2024.
Later, a Bloomberg report added that Tesla planned to release a Model Y refresh in “mid-2024”.
Tesla has shut does rumor down. Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have stated that Tesla doesn’t plan to refresh the Model Y “this year.” It’s important to note that both Tesla and Musk specifically mentioned “this year” when trying to shut down rumors of a new Model Y.
It led many to think that a refresh is coming, but for early next year.
Sure enough, we have started to spot camouflaged Model Y prototypes around California in the last month.
Now, a leak claiming to be direct from a factory claims to show pictures of the new Model Y (via Reddit):
Both pictures appear to be taken with a cover partially lifted off the vehicle.
The first image shows the rear with what appears to be a new illuminated ‘Tesla’ brand badge. With the Model 3 refresh, Tesla went with a spelt out ‘Tesla’ rather than the ‘T’ logo in the back, but having it illuminated or in a light would be new in the Tesla lineup.
The second picture is from inside the vehicle showing the ambient lighting in the door, which is a feature that was also introduced with the Model 3 refresh, but it has yet to make it to Model Y.
Electrek’s Take
So far, based on this leak the Model Y refresh appears to aim to bring it closer to new Model 3.
However, it will be interesting to see if Tesla continues in this direction. For example, the stalk-less steering wheel has been one of the most controversial changes to the Model 3.
Will Tesla be willing to put that in its most popular model, Model Y?
i'd bet the refreshed y will simply be a tall 3 like it's been only with the new 3 bits.
I'm betting that is correct. The Y is a winning formula that Tesla would be foolish to change. Other than refining it, making it more comfortable, quiet and efficient, IMO I wouldn't make any radical changes to it. I would keep the stalks, but that's not going to happen
If it ain't broke, and it mostly isn't, don't fix it. Make it a bit nicer, a bit quieter, a bit more comfortable, ride a little better, and throw in a little bling to differentiate it from the current Model Y, and all will be well. Tesla of course already knows this.
That image is awfully specific it's either the new Y or a completely new model.
You have some really good eyes and observation abilities my brother, as I can't really tell much from a picture that close up. But it's probably real, and as the leaks are now starting, I would say Model Y buyers are in for a treat next year
07-25-24, 05:49 AM
