Tesla Business and News Thread
11-12-23, 12:14 PM
#736
EV ftw!!!
Tesla basically sells 2 cars. The Cybertruck is a big question mark, but the Big 2.5 better hope it's a flop.
The Model 2 will hit Toyota in the gut; the Corolla is it's biggest seller and historically #1 in the world. The Corolla is a low margin vehicle; if the Model 2 is designed based on everything Tesla has learned; it could be a good margin car for the masses. That's a game changer.
And Tesla owns the charging network... No one predicted that.
Oh yeah, Tesla is a technology company. Who knows what they have up their sleeve? Everyone else is 10 years behind. Tesla owns 50% of the EV market.
The Model 2 will hit Toyota in the gut; the Corolla is it's biggest seller and historically #1 in the world. The Corolla is a low margin vehicle; if the Model 2 is designed based on everything Tesla has learned; it could be a good margin car for the masses. That's a game changer.
And Tesla owns the charging network... No one predicted that.
Oh yeah, Tesla is a technology company. Who knows what they have up their sleeve? Everyone else is 10 years behind. Tesla owns 50% of the EV market.
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AMIRZA786 (11-12-23)
11-12-23, 03:28 PM
#737
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
Cybertruck will drive revenue and, in future, significant margin as build costs reduce.
heck, they're selling (i think) 3 highland in europe but availability not even announced for u.s. yet.
and what about y highland? crickets.
the massive revenue potential from the Supercharger network
Tesla increasingly leveraging its AI and ML capabilities, and
tesla will eventually figure out FSD
tesla will eventually figure out FSD
obviously you're very optimistic, as is amirza and jeff, but competition isn't standing still. i'm sure you're all laughing thinking i mean companies like gm and ford. but i don't. byd is a MASSIVE ev player for example, who just hasn't chosen to enter the u.s. market yet, not that for stock purposes we have to focus on the u.s.
and then there's macroeconomic issues including potential recession and war costs / risks.
Last edited by bitkahuna; 11-12-23 at 03:34 PM.
11-12-23, 03:58 PM
#738
Byd is way bigger competition to toyota, ford, hyundai and gm than tesla.
More than half of their sales are for plugins. And they focus on traditional car values not on new tech like tesla.
More than half of their sales are for plugins. And they focus on traditional car values not on new tech like tesla.
11-12-23, 04:01 PM
#739
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
11-12-23, 04:13 PM
#740
Pole Position
those 2 points are straight line extrapolations... no guarantees at all.
definitely will help, IF they can produce them in significant numbers without big issues. again, no guarantees. and while there's an 'event' at the end of the month, i suspect deliveries will be tiny.
heck, they're selling (i think) 3 highland in europe but availability not even announced for u.s. yet.
and what about y highland? crickets.
sure, but revenue doesn't equal profit. unlike oil/gasoline sales, tesla doesn't make the electricity they're selling. are there any numbers for profitability from their network today?
again, no guarantees what, if or when.
obviously you're very optimistic, as is amirza and jeff, but competition isn't standing still. i'm sure you're all laughing thinking i mean companies like gm and ford. but i don't. byd is a MASSIVE ev player for example, who just hasn't chosen to enter the u.s. market yet, not that for stock purposes we have to focus on the u.s.
and then there's macroeconomic issues including potential recession and war costs / risks.
definitely will help, IF they can produce them in significant numbers without big issues. again, no guarantees. and while there's an 'event' at the end of the month, i suspect deliveries will be tiny.
heck, they're selling (i think) 3 highland in europe but availability not even announced for u.s. yet.
and what about y highland? crickets.
sure, but revenue doesn't equal profit. unlike oil/gasoline sales, tesla doesn't make the electricity they're selling. are there any numbers for profitability from their network today?
again, no guarantees what, if or when.
obviously you're very optimistic, as is amirza and jeff, but competition isn't standing still. i'm sure you're all laughing thinking i mean companies like gm and ford. but i don't. byd is a MASSIVE ev player for example, who just hasn't chosen to enter the u.s. market yet, not that for stock purposes we have to focus on the u.s.
and then there's macroeconomic issues including potential recession and war costs / risks.
I'll answer for you. None. So we work with the preponderance of evidence available to us.
Now I don't profess to be no rocket surgeon, but the preponderance of the evidence available tells me that I'm likely right in my predictions.
Time will tell, of course. But I'm right.
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AMIRZA786 (11-12-23)
11-12-23, 04:53 PM
#741
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
predictions of the future based simply on extending what has happened in the past are almost always wrong, lol.
what about tesla's roof tile business? funny, i hear almost nothing about that.
their ACTUAL business is selling 2 cars, a VERY basic sedan and cuv. given the ev platform though, they have advantages of space, efficiency, quiet/smooth as we all know. the software is icing on the cake but to MOST mainstream buyers (i.e., non-enthusiasts), not that important.
the s and x are old and gimmicky at this point.
they have a charging network though that is without question a huge advantage. and with other brands now wanting to use it and signing up, that could be a very big business for tesla.
i do wonder what will happen to electrify america, etc., will they license the tesla plug too?
certainly an exciting future, but i would say hard to predict.
what about tesla's roof tile business? funny, i hear almost nothing about that.
their ACTUAL business is selling 2 cars, a VERY basic sedan and cuv. given the ev platform though, they have advantages of space, efficiency, quiet/smooth as we all know. the software is icing on the cake but to MOST mainstream buyers (i.e., non-enthusiasts), not that important.
the s and x are old and gimmicky at this point.
they have a charging network though that is without question a huge advantage. and with other brands now wanting to use it and signing up, that could be a very big business for tesla.
i do wonder what will happen to electrify america, etc., will they license the tesla plug too?
certainly an exciting future, but i would say hard to predict.
11-12-23, 06:32 PM
#742
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
Tesla's solar business is slumping because of California adopting new stupid Net Metering rules as well as high interest rates that took advantages away to going solar. And this is not just affecting Tesla, but other Solar energy companies as well. I was going to add additional panels on my garage, but had to back out because I'm grandfathered into the original NEM, which is NEM 2.0 and if I add additional panels, they will move me to the NEM 3.0 policy. The California Utilities commission is bought and sold by power companies, so the solar advantage was lost in April of this year when NEM 3.0 took effect for new solar customers.
It's definitely hard to predict the future, but barring any huge seachange like Sacramento shifting gears and deciding to go heavily into gas and oil, Tesla in my observation will continue to grow and dominate EV's for the foreseeable future. While Tesla is full steam ahead expanding factories, other legacy automakers are putting their EV plans on pause. Some are doubling down on downsized engines and hybrids.
Tesla's biggest competition will probably be BYD, if they every break into the North American market, the will give Tesla a run for its money
It's definitely hard to predict the future, but barring any huge seachange like Sacramento shifting gears and deciding to go heavily into gas and oil, Tesla in my observation will continue to grow and dominate EV's for the foreseeable future. While Tesla is full steam ahead expanding factories, other legacy automakers are putting their EV plans on pause. Some are doubling down on downsized engines and hybrids.
Tesla's biggest competition will probably be BYD, if they every break into the North American market, the will give Tesla a run for its money
11-12-23, 07:16 PM
#743
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
Tesla's solar business is slumping because of California adopting new stupid Net Metering rules as well as high interest rates that took advantages away to going solar. And this is not just affecting Tesla, but other Solar energy companies as well. I was going to add additional panels on my garage, but had to back out because I'm grandfathered into the original NEM, which is NEM 2.0 and if I add additional panels, they will move me to the NEM 3.0 policy. The California Utilities commission is bought and sold by power companies, so the solar advantage was lost in April of this year when NEM 3.0 took effect for new solar customers.
It's definitely hard to predict the future, but barring any huge seachange like Sacramento shifting gears and deciding to go heavily into gas and oil, Tesla in my observation will continue to grow and dominate EV's for the foreseeable future.
i agree tesla will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.
While Tesla is full steam ahead expanding factories, other legacy automakers are putting their EV plans on pause. Some are doubling down on downsized engines and hybrids.
) in this area and their first question is 'how much range?' and their second question or comment is 'no good for trips then'. i always ask how many trips to you go on and unless you're doing a ton of driving, trips are still quite doable. some say maybe in the future, some say they'll likely get a hybrid first. so there's that local anecdote. while ev sales are growing i still think there's a ton of people who aren't confortable with the idea yet, and for obvious reasons, most condo/apartment dwellers can't do it until chargers are there.
11-12-23, 07:37 PM
#744
11-12-23, 07:45 PM
#745
EV ftw!!!
I think with a cheaper Tesla, it won't even be a comparison worth mentioning.
11-12-23, 07:47 PM
#746
obviously you're very optimistic, as is amirza and jeff, but competition isn't standing still. i'm sure you're all laughing thinking i mean companies like gm and ford. but i don't. byd is a MASSIVE ev player for example, who just hasn't chosen to enter the u.s. market yet, not that for stock purposes we have to focus on the u.s.
and then there's macroeconomic issues including potential recession and war costs / risks.
and then there's macroeconomic issues including potential recession and war costs / risks.
11-12-23, 07:48 PM
#747
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
solar incentives and net metering has benefited wealthier people massively. 'some' will say this has come at additional cost for less well off. there's probably some truth to that too. so no surprised net metering would be scaled back. here in florida the power companies also dominate the legislative agenda for solar too which is a bit of a joke given that we're the 'sunshine state'.
you mention sacramento but again there's more to tesla's sales and market than california! i could be wrong, but i heard ev sales have cooled off quite a bit in europe for example.
i agree tesla will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.
i know you see huge ev adoption there but since i got mine i talk to a lot of people (or they talk to me ) in this area and their first question is 'how much range?' and their second question or comment is 'no good for trips then'. i always ask how many trips to you go on and unless you're doing a ton of driving, trips are still quite doable. some say maybe in the future, some say they'll likely get a hybrid first. so there's that local anecdote. while ev sales are growing i still think there's a ton of people who aren't confortable with the idea yet, and for obvious reasons, most condo/apartment dwellers can't do it until chargers are there.
you mention sacramento but again there's more to tesla's sales and market than california! i could be wrong, but i heard ev sales have cooled off quite a bit in europe for example.
i agree tesla will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.
i know you see huge ev adoption there but since i got mine i talk to a lot of people (or they talk to me
) in this area and their first question is 'how much range?' and their second question or comment is 'no good for trips then'. i always ask how many trips to you go on and unless you're doing a ton of driving, trips are still quite doable. some say maybe in the future, some say they'll likely get a hybrid first. so there's that local anecdote. while ev sales are growing i still think there's a ton of people who aren't confortable with the idea yet, and for obvious reasons, most condo/apartment dwellers can't do it until chargers are there.At this point, the USA is Tesla's biggest market, and California is their biggest market in NA
Last edited by AMIRZA786; 11-12-23 at 07:53 PM.
11-13-23, 08:15 AM
#748
To expand, the reasons I favor the bull scenario for Tesla are:
the future Model 2 will quickly lead in its segment and see massive adoption;
the current core products - 3 and Y - will continue to lead in their segments
Cybertruck will drive revenue and, in future, significant margin as build costs reduce.
the massive revenue potential from the Supercharger network
Tesla increasingly leveraging its AI and ML capabilities, and
tesla will eventually figure out FSD
the future Model 2 will quickly lead in its segment and see massive adoption;
the current core products - 3 and Y - will continue to lead in their segments
Cybertruck will drive revenue and, in future, significant margin as build costs reduce.
the massive revenue potential from the Supercharger network
Tesla increasingly leveraging its AI and ML capabilities, and
tesla will eventually figure out FSD
Model 2 - I agree, it will see massive adoption if its actually a 25k vehicle and has decent range (225+ miles). If Tesla keeps the design simple, it shouldn't take them cybertruck time to actually develop and release.
Model 3 - imo with a Model 2, demand for the model 3 will crater or at best be stagnant. I think a Model 2 will outsell the Model 3 by a wide margin. Which may be bad for Tesla, since I expect the Model 2 to be a lower profit margin vehicle).
Cybertruck - if its priced close to a Model S / X I expect it to be low volume just like those models. It will certainly have a lot of demand the first 2-3 years but will taper off in subsequent years.
This is not to say Tesla wont be a major player in the automarket but I think they are atleast 5 years away from passing a 6 million per year vehicles sold which is still a huge accomplishment if they get to that. However, I have heard many tesla fans expecting over 50% growth in units sold every year for a while.
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AMIRZA786 (11-13-23)
11-13-23, 08:48 AM
#749
Lexus Champion
Thread Starter
I disagree.
Model 2 - I agree, it will see massive adoption if its actually a 25k vehicle and has decent range (225+ miles). If Tesla keeps the design simple, it shouldn't take them cybertruck time to actually develop and release.
Model 3 - imo with a Model 2, demand for the model 3 will crater or at best be stagnant. I think a Model 2 will outsell the Model 3 by a wide margin. Which may be bad for Tesla, since I expect the Model 2 to be a lower profit margin vehicle).
Cybertruck - if its priced close to a Model S / X I expect it to be low volume just like those models. It will certainly have a lot of demand the first 2-3 years but will taper off in subsequent years.
This is not to say Tesla wont be a major player in the automarket but I think they are atleast 5 years away from passing a 6 million per year vehicles sold which is still a huge accomplishment if they get to that. However, I have heard many tesla fans expecting over 50% growth in units sold every year for a while.
Model 2 - I agree, it will see massive adoption if its actually a 25k vehicle and has decent range (225+ miles). If Tesla keeps the design simple, it shouldn't take them cybertruck time to actually develop and release.
Model 3 - imo with a Model 2, demand for the model 3 will crater or at best be stagnant. I think a Model 2 will outsell the Model 3 by a wide margin. Which may be bad for Tesla, since I expect the Model 2 to be a lower profit margin vehicle).
Cybertruck - if its priced close to a Model S / X I expect it to be low volume just like those models. It will certainly have a lot of demand the first 2-3 years but will taper off in subsequent years.
This is not to say Tesla wont be a major player in the automarket but I think they are atleast 5 years away from passing a 6 million per year vehicles sold which is still a huge accomplishment if they get to that. However, I have heard many tesla fans expecting over 50% growth in units sold every year for a while.
I'm not even going to try and predict Cyber Truck sales because many smart people have bet against Tesla and not fared well. Here I'm just going to take a wait and see approach. What I will say is I'm interested in how many people on the reservation list actually follow through, I think that will give us an idea of well this vehicle will sell.
Anyway, I never bet against Tesla, that's just my policy
11-13-23, 08:59 AM
#750
I don't think Model 2 will cut much into Model 3 sales...it will be similar how Model Y cut into Model 3. Model 2 will appeal to Corolla and Civic buyers, while Model 3 will continue to appeal to Camry buyers, although it may cut some into the base Model 3.
I'm not even going to try and predict Cyber Truck sales because many smart people have bet against Tesla and not fared well. Here I'm just going to take a wait and see approach. What I will say is I'm interested in how many people on the reservation list actually follow through, I think that will give us an idea of well this vehicle will sell.
Anyway, I never bet against Tesla, that's just my policy
I'm not even going to try and predict Cyber Truck sales because many smart people have bet against Tesla and not fared well. Here I'm just going to take a wait and see approach. What I will say is I'm interested in how many people on the reservation list actually follow through, I think that will give us an idea of well this vehicle will sell.
Anyway, I never bet against Tesla, that's just my policy
A lot of people on the reservation I know are scalpers lol. Some people have multiple reservations as well. A lot of these people are going to cancel with the leaked document that Tesla is restricting buyers from selling the Cybertruck until after 1 year of ownership....with some exceptions.