swajames

In five years time, Tesla will still be the market leader with a reduced overall share of what will then be a larger market, which means continued growth over that period while retaining the strongest margins amongst its competitors.

Mike728

My wife and I are pretty much in that "B" category. My wife has already retired and I will be in the next couple years. It made perfect sense to purchase our Y and we couldn't be happier with our decision. There's actually quite a bit of diversity among EV buyers in our area. I see many older people driving them.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

i get what you're saying, more affluent people owning homes have the convenience of home charging and so many people of all ages don't drive a ton of miles these days so ev's make sense for more people than realize it, but still, vast majority aren't ready to switch yet.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

as we've discussed, that's the straight line extrapolation from here... plus i think you're only referring to the u.s.?

globally tesla has biggest marketshare but not by much now, and 'others' in this charge are 3x tesla so i'd say tesla's #1 spot is by no means a sure thing in 5 years.



source: https://www.counterpointresearch.com...-market-share/

Mike728

That has less to do with making sense, and more to do with being afraid of change and political beliefs. There are a few that like to comment in this forum that will never give up their ICE. They will be the new Amish in a few years.

bitkahuna

iTrader: (20)

oh i agree. first question everyone asks me about my ev is "how far will it go?" (and i bet none of them have drive 200mi. in a day in years ). second question - where do you get it charged?

swajames

All this of course depends upon how you define “leader”. Tesla has mindshare as well as market share, they feature in every conversation and article discussing EVs and the EV industry, and their brand essentially defines the industry. They are setting pricing strategy for the industry because they broadly control the pricing strategy for the industry given their unique ability to leverage price as a weapon. They are the only manufacturer with an extensive charging network that’s about to become yet another significant revenue stream. And just like there was a time when more than 100% of the entire cellphone industry profit accrued to Apple because everyone else was losing money, that’s the position that Tesla largely finds itself in now.

and all this has happened without any representation in the small car or truck segments, which Tesla will support with the upcoming model 2 and Cybertruck.

Leadership is multi-dimensional and multi-faceted, Tesla has more check marks in more boxes than any other. It’s going to be a long time before anyone else is in this position, and until anyone else is, Tesla is going to remain the de facto industry leader regardless of whether they are overtaken by someone else on any individual metric.

JeffKeryk

I see your point, but a deeper look into the numbers shows only Tesla makes a profit on EV; others lose billions. Worse, they have old, distributed factories. Upgrades, procurement, management and staffing nightmares.
Now, in 2025 we might see the Model 2, or whatever Tesla calls it. Tesla is easily 10 years ahead of any competition.

Interesting times ahead...

spwolf

what deeper look? byd is not losing money anymore

LeX2K

What are margins for their EV only business?

spwolf

You tell me? What are they?
Also, this year they will be market leader in EVs worldwide.

Somehow while Tesla was building momentum, margins didnt matter and they were calculated in some weird way, now when you have BYD selling more BEVs than Tesla, it is all about margins.

And?

spwolf

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...102634880.html

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

You have to remember 5 basic fundamentals.

1. When you place an order for a Tesla and you have to wait months it's because of unlimited demand.

​​​​​​2. When you place an order for a Tesla and can receive it in a week it's because of how quickly they have been able to scale because of their vertical integration.

3. When Tesla reduces their prices it's not due to falling demand (remember point 1, the demand is unlimited) it's to eliminate the competition.

4. When another EV automaker is gaining in sales, it's because they are losing money on every EV they sell and they can't come close to Tesla margins.

5. Tesla is the most advanced automobile on the road and any short comings can be overlooked because they are 10 years ahead of every other automaker.

Bonus: another EV might look better on paper but they don't have full access or any access at all to Tesla supercharging network although we charge 99% from home. So in the end Tesla is still the best vehicle and EV on the road and any other choice is the wrong one.

Before you say anything negative about Tesla, review these basic fundamentals and you can turn that negative comment into a positive one.

Mike728

LOL, There is some of that going on here, but nothing like on the Tesla forums. It gets out of hand at times, all the excuses people make. I've never seen anything like it. While I love our Y, I'm looking forward to some real competition. Hyundai/Kia are right there. They just need to get their sales model in line.

Allen K

iTrader: (4)

I really liked my 3P, I love my R1S and when the supercharger network is opened up to me (aside from magic docks) it'll be even better.