Tesla Business and News Thread
#1201
Well the only company who is remotely in a position to lead or become the standard on FSD is Tesla because they are the ones with a massive install base of vehicles that can readily accept FSD. Even if someone else beats them to the punch and launches a Level 3 or 4 capability, it doesn't move the needle because the install base isn't there to leverage it. I will say when I see things like "we rewrote 300,000 lines of C++ code" spun as a positive sign of progress I don't automatically see it that way at all, it's more of an admission that the prior code wasn't actually up to the job. Either way, FSD is still absolutely Tesla's game to lose. Sure we're going to see others innovate, but how do they bring it to market? Every single unit of the best selling car in the world can run FSD, and that's why only Tesla is really the only one in position to eventually dominate.
This is certainly not close to being a guarantee imo. Tesla may have millions of car currently on the road than are FSD capable or they may have zero.
how will a company releasing a fully working FSD doesn't move the needle? They could easily license it to other manufacturers and the install base will grow exponentially in very little time.
Who knows if 4 years from now they will have to rewrite 300,000 lines of code again.
You mentioned every single unit of the best selling car can run FSD, that's what we heard in 2016 as well. Then it turns out some cars will now require upgrades or possibly some won't work at all.
I have stated my stance on FSD already, imo I don't think we are close, decades away at best. That doesn't just go for Tesla but all companies.
Last edited by Blaze876; 01-26-24 at 09:35 AM.
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LexTess (01-26-24)
#1202
I honestly don't believe most Tesla buyers care about FSD. Almost everyone I know who owns a Tesla didn't opt for it, not wanting to pay $12K. Although it did bring in $1B in revenue, so there are those that do opt to buy it, but overall in the scheme of things I don't think most people buy Teslas because of FSD.
If Tesla gets FSD working as it should, that may change
If Tesla gets FSD working as it should, that may change
#1203
I disagree, it actually does work, I've talked to several people who opted to buy it and use it, but it's a long way off from being "trusted", and it's certainly not perfect. That being said, I'm confident Tesla will get it working, it will probably need a few more years
#1204
IMO it comes down to FSD. It's been what 7 or 8 years now we keep hearing it's 1 year away? What happens in 5 years if no FSD exist or robotics doesn't have a working product to sell. Will investors still believe it is coming soon? Or worse what if another company gets one of the 2 done first and it becomes the standard?
#1205
I disagree, it actually does work, I've talked to several people who opted to buy it and use it, but it's a long way off from being "trusted", and it's certainly not perfect. That being said, I'm confident Tesla will get it working, it will probably need a few more years
#1206
I don't disagree. But that is an extremely long viewpoint. So it doesn't change my question (which I know was not initially directed at you) about what drives a short term dip to $110. There is some financial person or talking head that threw out that number, someone heard it, and I'm interested in what it's based on as a short term viewpoint.
#1207
Is it accurate to say that you say this because of how far out you think the timeline could be for full FSD to be available? For example, it's possible some 2020 cars could be unable to run FSD with some type of major upgrade/replacement of computer parts if it doesn't come out until 2028? Purely an example, just asking.
#1208
Agreed there, a big reason I opted not to purchase FSD. Just my observation, but it was mainly the early Tesla adopters who really care about FSD, today's average Model 3 or Model Y buyers (the majority of buyers) don't really care about FSD. Most care about Traffic Aware Cruise Control or Autopilot which is used mainly on trips. Outside of Elon Musk, Institutional investors and or those looking to short TSLA are those who mainly focus outlooks on FSD, IMO of course
#1209
Is it accurate to say that you say this because of how far out you think the timeline could be for full FSD to be available? For example, it's possible some 2020 cars could be unable to run FSD with some type of major upgrade/replacement of computer parts if it doesn't come out until 2028? Purely an example, just asking.
My personal believe of it being so far out also is a reason why I lean more towards Tesla has no cars currently that will be FSD capable. They may be able to be upgraded...but hey, a lot smarter people are working at Tesla so I may be completely wrong lol.
#1210
We have heard Tesla said all cars being released are FSD capable, then about 4-5 years later they released that some cars will need upgrades and some I believe will not be able to at all. So I will take them saying now that all cars are FSD capable with a grain of salt.
My personal believe of it being so far out also is a reason why I lean more towards Tesla has no cars currently that will be FSD capable. They may be able to be upgraded...but hey, a lot smarter people are working at Tesla so I may be completely wrong lol.
My personal believe of it being so far out also is a reason why I lean more towards Tesla has no cars currently that will be FSD capable. They may be able to be upgraded...but hey, a lot smarter people are working at Tesla so I may be completely wrong lol.
#1211
Interesting view point - as with any software, the hardware has to be able to run it, etc. so what you're saying makes sense. I have FSD on my car, and while I never use it (I like to drive) other than to just show someone how it works, I do see it has gotten way better in the 12 months I've had my car. It navigates some extremely difficult scenarios in my town perfectly. However, I can't imagine the regulations that TSLA and others will have to go through to get to true driver-less cars (aka robo taxi). I can't comprehend how Tesla will have to prove it out for full approval.
#1212
If he followed his own investment advice on Tesla, he'd have been homeless years ago. Yet he still preaches the same narrative despite being wrong week after week.
https://www.tipranks.com/experts/ana...gordon-johnson
I'm picking up more here as an oppty to average down, and if it drops further I'll pick up even more. I believe CT will help, and I believe TSLA is the only current EV company with strong US presence that can build a $30k EV that people will flock to purchase. And I think that arrives late next year.
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AMIRZA786 (01-26-24)
#1213
It seems so obvious to me that the only obvious conclusion is I'm missing something..!!
#1214
#1215
I mentioned that a couple of posts back. Just to rehash, I personally picked up a block at around $113 a share in Jan, and sold a large chunk of that block around June or July when it hit $260, which enabled me to pay off my Y
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