Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

"Massive install base of vehicles that can readily accept FSD"
This is certainly not close to being a guarantee imo. Tesla may have millions of car currently on the road than are FSD capable or they may have zero.
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how will a company releasing a fully working FSD doesn't move the needle? They could easily license it to other manufacturers and the install base will grow exponentially in very little time.

Who knows if 4 years from now they will have to rewrite 300,000 lines of code again.

You mentioned every single unit of the best selling car can run FSD, that's what we heard in 2016 as well. Then it turns out some cars will now require upgrades or possibly some won't work at all.

I have stated my stance on FSD already, imo I don't think we are close, decades away at best. That doesn't just go for Tesla but all companies.

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

They don't because it doesn't work lol. If FSD works it will be Tesla biggest source of revenue and will make the company worth what it's valued at now and a lot more (in the trillions).

AMIRZA786

I disagree, it actually does work, I've talked to several people who opted to buy it and use it, but it's a long way off from being "trusted", and it's certainly not perfect. That being said, I'm confident Tesla will get it working, it will probably need a few more years

jrmckinley

I don't disagree. But that is an extremely long viewpoint. So it doesn't change my question (which I know was not initially directed at you) about what drives a short term dip to $110. There is some financial person or talking head that threw out that number, someone heard it, and I'm interested in what it's based on as a short term viewpoint.

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

Doesn't work meaning it's not fully functional. Sure some features work, but a finished product it's not close. Which imo means it doesn't work.

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

Oh I see. Yeah I don't think it will go that low in the short term.

jrmckinley

Is it accurate to say that you say this because of how far out you think the timeline could be for full FSD to be available? For example, it's possible some 2020 cars could be unable to run FSD with some type of major upgrade/replacement of computer parts if it doesn't come out until 2028? Purely an example, just asking.

AMIRZA786

Agreed there, a big reason I opted not to purchase FSD. Just my observation, but it was mainly the early Tesla adopters who really care about FSD, today's average Model 3 or Model Y buyers (the majority of buyers) don't really care about FSD. Most care about Traffic Aware Cruise Control or Autopilot which is used mainly on trips. Outside of Elon Musk, Institutional investors and or those looking to short TSLA are those who mainly focus outlooks on FSD, IMO of course

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

We have heard Tesla said all cars being released are FSD capable, then about 4-5 years later they released that some cars will need upgrades and some I believe will not be able to at all. So I will take them saying now that all cars are FSD capable with a grain of salt.

My personal believe of it being so far out also is a reason why I lean more towards Tesla has no cars currently that will be FSD capable. They may be able to be upgraded...but hey, a lot smarter people are working at Tesla so I may be completely wrong lol.

jrmckinley

Interesting view point - as with any software, the hardware has to be able to run it, etc. so what you're saying makes sense. I have FSD on my car, and while I never use it (I like to drive) other than to just show someone how it works, I do see it has gotten way better in the 12 months I've had my car. It navigates some extremely difficult scenarios in my town perfectly. However, I can't imagine the regulations that TSLA and others will have to go through to get to true driver-less cars (aka robo taxi). I can't comprehend how Tesla will have to prove it out for full approval.

Blaze876

iTrader: (1)

Yeah pretty much my thoughts. What fsd is currently is impressive. But there is still a big gap between where they are now to being fully autonomous with no one inside the car. I would love to be wrong though.



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LeX2K

January 6, 2023 stock was $113 as pointed out. Rapid growth, rock solid financials etc. don't matter in the short term only perception does.
GJ is a clown, a jester. He's one of the worst rated analysts there is
https://www.tipranks.com/experts/ana...gordon-johnson
I'm going to be patient and wait for a further drop if it doesn't happen so be it I already have "too much" TSLA.
We are left to guess what the number is I don't ever remember Tesla not giving guidance on production expectation. Massive shift in tone we went from "quasi-infinite demand" to well we are in an in between growth phase. WTF? Tesla refuses to build out brand perception beyond worth of mouth and that word of mouth goodwill appears to be maxed out.

jrmckinley

There is no denying that Tesla has the largest set of HW units on the ground capturing data to make FSD better. I mean this both in the sense of cars on the road actively using FSD and also the fact that every Tesla has cameras constantly capturing real time road dynamics and info. One thing I heard on the earnings call that I didn't like was how they aren't currently actively talking to any other auto manufacturer who wants to license FSD. That makes no sense to me. This is not your typical "build vs buy" discussion that companies have when deciding if they want to acquire/license a technology or build it themselves. This is fundamentally different in the sense that the other manufacturers could not catch up to the number of data-collecting vehicles that Tesla has on the road in a short enough time period to make their neural network large enough to produce the desired outcome of a working product.

It seems so obvious to me that the only obvious conclusion is I'm missing something..!!

jrmckinley

Ah, you are correct. I did not see that when I looked back at the 3 year chart. Frankly, not sure how I missed it - but I did.

AMIRZA786

I mentioned that a couple of posts back. Just to rehash, I personally picked up a block at around $113 a share in Jan, and sold a large chunk of that block around June or July when it hit $260, which enabled me to pay off my Y