General EV Conversation
03-21-24, 09:46 PM
#2461
The AVERAGE age of a car on the road today is 12.5 years old. People are keeping cars longer, and that isn't conducive the EV ownership. It's not just about mileage with EVs. It's also about age. People really haven't seen that side of the EV equation yet because most EVs aren't old enough. But when they do, and if used batteries are still expensive, it won't bode well for EVs. And people that buy new all the time can say they don't care, but if resale values take a hit, it will hit lease prices too. That will make them more expensive and hurt sales, unless the gov comes in subsidizes them even more. Going to be interesting to see it play out.
03-21-24, 09:55 PM
#2462
Lexus Fanatic
You're on one hand saying EVs have not been around long enough to gauge longevity and in other saying they won't age well. You can't have both.
03-21-24, 10:05 PM
#2463
Remember, there is no "on" switch where suddenly there's nothing but EV'S. Assuming the trend continues for argument sake, the market will be full of ICE for years to come. They are not disappearing, I don't care what anyone says. By the time EV'S reach enough saturation, the battery issues, which I believe will be rare, will be worked out. Prices have dropped significantly the last 3 years.
I will say one thing with 100 surety... once people start driving them and living day to day with them, the majority won't even consider going back. That I can promise
I will say one thing with 100 surety... once people start driving them and living day to day with them, the majority won't even consider going back. That I can promise
03-21-24, 10:12 PM
#2464
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
03-21-24, 10:15 PM
#2465
Lexus Fanatic
Maybe. But you can't assume the battery issues will be worked out. Like someone said to me not long ago, we can only go by how thing have been done, not how they can be done. Right now, the battery tech isn't even close to being to the point where the AVERAGE age of an EV on the road will be 12.5 years. That's end of life for most EVs because the battery replacement cost is so high. That's a significant change for the used car market and for owners as a whole.
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
Can't help but notice you provide zero data for anything you're claiming.
03-21-24, 10:29 PM
#2466
Lexus Champion
That's not what I'm saying. These batteries will die. If the mileage doesn't get them, age will. There is an expiration date. And it's a huge expense when they do. So huge, it basically makes the car a donate or throw away. I've seen it with some of the early model s that have hit that age. But since the volume for those cars is low, it's not really something that a lot of people are paying attention to yet. Let's see what happens a few years from now when some of the early model 3s start to get to the age where their batteries fail outside of warranty.
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
03-21-24, 10:31 PM
#2467
03-21-24, 10:34 PM
#2468
You are making a lot of assumptions. And a lot of "what if's. EV'S have been around long enough to understand what could go wrong. And tons of people are buying used Tesla's here. Some as old as 2018.
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
Personally I'm not worried, especially when it comes to Tesla's. I've seen enough data, much of it posted here proving to me that batteries can handle more than 300k. The one off Tesla or driven a million miles with battery issues posted on YouTube to drive traffic are nothing but noise to me
Would you feel comfortable a 12.5 year old EV on the original battery with no warranty?
03-21-24, 10:35 PM
#2469
Lexus Fanatic
03-21-24, 10:38 PM
#2470
Lexus Champion
but if I knew I could change a battery pack for a decent price, I might consider it for one of my kids
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Allen K (03-22-24)
03-22-24, 12:09 AM
#2471
03-22-24, 04:37 AM
#2472
03-22-24, 04:57 AM
#2473
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
03-22-24, 05:15 AM
#2474
Lexus Champion
I have my doubts as well about battery replacement costs dropping that much.
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
On the Prius, a vehicle that has been here for decades and sold millions in total, battery replacement costs are still around $1000, and this is for a pack that is 70x smaller than the huge batteries on BEVs.(only 1.3 kwh on these HEVs vs the 70+ kwh of BEVs)
03-22-24, 05:22 AM
#2475
And that $1k is for the cheapest possible, normally I think it's still $1.5k to $2k....i really should start researching this as my own battery might need help soon.