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The US is indeed a few years behind. This is likely the year that US sales of all vehicle types with a battery and motor (BEV, PHEV, and HEV) hit 20%, as that group accounted for 16.3% of light vehicle sales in 2023, up from 12.9% in 2022.
Hitting that 20% threshold with just BEVs and PHEVs will take a few more years, as they accounted for about 10% of sales in 2023, up from about 7% in 2022.
With hybrids I think it's possible..... But never pure EVs at 20%. Or not in this lifetime.
But the thing is, lots of Americans don't want hybrids either.
It's almost as if some of us don't care if our cars get bad gas mileage. (Sarcasm not directed at you personally.)
With hybrids I think it's possible..... But never pure EVs at 20%. Or not in this lifetime.
Need to clarify what you mean by hybrids here.
If all hybrids, considering it very likely will happen this year, "possible" is a bit of an understatement. If PHEVs only, probably still a bit of an understatement, since combined PHEV/BEV marketshare in 2023 was up by nearly half compared to the year before (from 7% to 10%), and are now halfway to that threshold. If I had to get out my crystal ball, I'd say 2027 or 2028.
Straight-up BEV marketshare hitting 20% will take a bit longer still (probably sometime in the early '30s would be my guess), but "not in our lifetime" is quite a reach unless you're a lot older than I think you are. It is interesting to note that EVERY European manufacturer already gets at least 10% of their US sales from BEVs:
Straight-up BEV marketshare hitting 20% will take a bit longer still (probably sometime in the early '30s would be my guess), but "not in our lifetime" is quite a reach unless you're a lot older than I think you are. It is interesting to note that EVERY European manufacturer already gets at least 10% of their US sales from BEVs:
By hybrids I mean ICE + electric. A Prius for example. "Early 30's?" Everyone, pretty much is scaling that way back. It was all just a virtue signal.
Cadillac is the latest brand to eat their words, along with pretty much everyone else.
There might be some good news for internal-combustion devotees from Cadillac. The company’s global vice president John Roth made an interesting comment during a business update in Detroit that shows there might be a slight pivot in the brand’s electrification decisions. During the business update, Roth says, “EVs and ICE, let me be clear, will coexist for a number of years. We want to make sure that we have that luxury of choice in the marketplace, and both will have an opportunity to meet the customer needs as we look forward.”
Roth goes further, “We have several new ICE products in the portfolio that have been recently enhanced.” He says these internal-combustion-powered machines are complemented by similarly new battery-electric offerings.
Now, this seems to go against the brand’s public push to have a fully battery-electric product portfolio by the end of the 2020s
There will never be 20% pure EVs (cars and non-semi trucks) on the road in the USA in my lifetime, in my opinion. This current slowdown is just the beginning.
There might be some good news for internal-combustion devotees from Cadillac. The company’s global vice president John Roth made an interesting comment during a business update in Detroit that shows there might be a slight pivot in the brand’s electrification decisions. During the business update, Roth says, “EVs and ICE, let me be clear, will coexist for a number of years. We want to make sure that we have that luxury of choice in the marketplace, and both will have an opportunity to meet the customer needs as we look forward.”
Roth goes further, “We have several new ICE products in the portfolio that have been recently enhanced.” He says these internal-combustion-powered machines are complemented by similarly new battery-electric offerings.
Now, this seems to go against the brand’s public push to have a fully battery-electric product portfolio by the end of the 2020s
There will never be 20% pure EVs (cars and non-semi trucks) on the road in the USA in my lifetime, in my opinion. This current slowdown is just the beginning.
I'm glad we have an Oracle here. What else does your Crystal ball say? 🤣🤣🤣
You know what my stances are. It's nothing personal.
So far my "crystal ball" with all this has been pretty accurate, I might add.
I said the carmakers would be walking this 2030 crap back five years ago.
No, I don't take it personal, I just like to push your buttons . But nothing has been walked back, the data shows upwards, not downwards, even in the US. "Walking back" means going backwards, reversing course. No automaker has reversed course, they have just slowed down. Instead of going at 70 MPH, they have slowed it down to 60. Show me a chart where it's gone negative, then I'll agree with you. Even Toyota has plans to go full EV, which they have stated many times, and put out many concepts.
Remember the argument we were having over the Cyber Truck not being off road capable? You were adamant that software wouldn't fix anything. Same thing, you are making an argument that automakers have reversed course, when they are still moving forward, just at a slower pace.
There will never be 20% pure EVs (cars and non-semi trucks) on the road in the USA in my lifetime, in my opinion. This current slowdown is just the beginning.
That's an easy prediction (assuming you're not a teen), given that less than 1% of total cars on road are BEVs and PHEVs right now.
For what it's worth, that den of progressiveness, CA, is turning much more to hybrids (HEVs and PHEVs) for now.
Registrations of hybrid vehicles in California far outpaces the growth of EVs.
The trend becomes clearer comparing the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. Electric vehicle registrations increased by a modest 2.8 percent. Plug-in hybrid vehicles saw a much higher increase of 9 percent. Hybrid vehicles came in at the top with a 53 percent increase for the first quarter of 2024.
No comments to the above on BEV's selling almost 6X more than PHEV's in "Progressive" California? I'm guessing in the scheme of things, 9 percent growth rate doesn't sound like much anymore 🤣
Although I'll admit, 53 percent growth in HEV's is impressive
No comments to the above on BEV's selling almost 6X more than PHEV's in "Progressive" California? I'm guessing in the scheme of things, 9 percent growth rate doesn't sound like much anymore 🤣
Although I'll admit, 53 percent growth in HEV's is impressive
That's because your post does not in any way negate the facts and argument presented by the article.
That's because your post does not in any way negate the facts and argument presented by the article.
BEV'S have outsold PHEV and HEV in California since 2020. Today new BEV sales are 21 percent of new car sales. The article takes a lot of liberties and does a lot of spinning of facts, which is why I don't take it seriously. If by Q4 hybrid/PHEV sales catch up with BEV's, I'll be the first one to pat you on the back
It's almost as if some of us don't care if our cars get bad gas mileage. (Sarcasm not directed at you personally.)
Yet all the statistics and surveys show fuel economy as being the biggest buying factor for buyers.
You're wanting to sell to a specific subset of buyers who do in fact not care...but thats not a good business move. The fact is that most buyers do care very much about fuel economy.
Yet all the statistics and surveys show fuel economy as being the biggest buying factor for buyers.
You're wanting to sell to a specific subset of buyers who do in fact not care...but thats not a good business move. The fact is that most buyers do care very much about fuel economy.
If I lived in California or somewhere with similar price of gas, I would be driving an EV. I spent $600+ in gas over the weekend at around $3-$4/gallon
If I lived in California or somewhere with similar price of gas, I would be driving an EV. I spent $600+ in gas over the weekend at around $3-$4/gallon
The cheapest gas here in San Jose is $4.67 for Unleaded, in SoCal it's even higher. Absolutely insane. Yesterday I briefly raced a Mustang GT, he must of burned at least two gallons, while I used about 3 kWh @ 0.14 cents per kWh
When the public believe a fuel efficient vehicle that they are looking at is 25-28 mpg, then they are satisfied and will look for 25-28 mpg vehicles all day long. Not often does an SUV or CUV get better on the highway.
However technology is there to get better mpg, although it doesn't exist in product portfolios of many manufacturers today. Cars have left the building quite some time ago, since they were not either profitable or marketable to the general public. Cute Utes are what the public want and fall into that "good gas mileage" category since that is what the buyer wants - and funny that those are hatchbacks, when were told decades ago that Americans don't want hatchbacks or wagons.
I would like an EV, but would be a local commuter, relatively small and easy to operate. Oh, and it can't be $40 or $50k! And I think I would consider my first lease vehicle as well.
05-03-24, 08:45 AM
It is interesting to note that EVERY European manufacturer already gets at least 10% of their US sales from BEVs:
. But nothing has been walked back, the data shows upwards, not downwards, even in the US. "Walking back" means going backwards, reversing course. No automaker has reversed course, they have just slowed down. Instead of going at 70 MPH, they have slowed it down to 60. Show me a chart where it's gone negative, then I'll agree with you. Even Toyota has plans to go full EV, which they have stated many times, and put out many concepts.
