BMW says electrification is overhyped
06-30-19, 09:36 PM
#61
Lexus Test Driver
I know I've said this before, but this just is one more sign that, even with a large volume of vehicles in production, the fact that a profit is still doubtful shows that the company simply keeps biting off more than it can chew with its policy of company-owned/company-operated everything, and no private franchises. Bob Lutz stated, in an article for Road & Track magazine, that the idea of company-ownership of everything has never worked on a significant scale in the history of automobiles. Even Henry Ford, whose company owned not just the auto plants but the steel-making plants, rubber-plantations for tires, cargo ships for the Great Lakes, and other facilities involved in auto production, allowed private dealer franchises.
06-30-19, 10:21 PM
#62
EVs are a paradigm shift that cannot survive in the traditional auto world. Only thing dealerships make money on is service and Teslas barely need servicing. Not enough to make money on it anyway. In two years, I need tire rotations and washer fluid fill up. No oil changes, no changes of any kind. The dealer model will die in my lifetime as EVs, ride-share, and other pressures will make them obsolete.
The only question is when will EV sales be greater than ICEV sales?
Roughly 2025?
Roughly 2030?
Roughly 2035?
Roughly 2040?
06-30-19, 11:54 PM
#63
Lexus Champion
Tesla is always in trouble, starting an auto company from scratch is incredibly difficult which gets even more amplified when it happens to be BEVs.
Oil if a finite resource we WILL run out of the stuff. Have to at some point move away from it why not start now.
I find these posts incredibly frustrating Tesla's start up costs are unbelievable. Expecting Tesla to be routinely profitable is incredibly unrealistic at this point in their history. It took Amazon 10 years before they turned a profit and that's a company that had not a whole lot of competition.
Lutz has recently praised Tesla
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...lity-bob-lutz/
.
ICE engines are still the future especially with oil prices continuing to decrease. If it wasn’t for the negative politics of Environmentalists, nobody would care about EVs.
I know I've said this before, but this just is one more sign that, even with a large volume of vehicles in production, the fact that a profit is still doubtful shows that the company simply keeps biting off more than it can chew with its policy of company-owned/company-operated everything, and no private franchises.
Bob Lutz stated, in an article for Road & Track magazine, that the idea of company-ownership of everything has never worked on a significant scale in the history of automobiles. Even Henry Ford, whose company owned not just the auto plants but the steel-making plants, rubber-plantations for tires, cargo ships for the Great Lakes, and other facilities involved in auto production, allowed private dealer franchises.
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...lity-bob-lutz/
Tesla Model 3s are a rare sight in Michigan, since our laws don't permit factory-owned dealers. But the strongly motivated Tesla fan can procure the car in neighboring states. When I spied a metallic-red Model 3 in an Ann Arbor parking lot, I felt compelled to check it out. I was eager to see the oft-reported sloppy assembly work, the poor-fitting doors, blotchy paint, and other manifestations of Tesla CEO Elon Musk's "production hell" with my own eyes.
But, when next to the car, I was stunned. Not only was the paint without any discernible flaw, but the various panels formed a body of precision that was beyond reproach. Gaps from hood to fenders, doors to frame, and all the others appeared to be perfectly even, equal side-to-side, and completely parallel. Gaps of 3.5 to 4.5mm are considered word-class. This Model 3 measured up
But, when next to the car, I was stunned. Not only was the paint without any discernible flaw, but the various panels formed a body of precision that was beyond reproach. Gaps from hood to fenders, doors to frame, and all the others appeared to be perfectly even, equal side-to-side, and completely parallel. Gaps of 3.5 to 4.5mm are considered word-class. This Model 3 measured up
07-01-19, 04:04 AM
#64
Pole Position
[QUOTE=Lexus2000;10554694]It took Amazon 10 years before they turned a profit and that's a company that had not a whole lot of competition.
Comparing Tesla and Amazon is the truly proverbially apples and oranges. Amazon made a profit in their 9th year. Every year however they were cutting their losses. Tesla is in it's 16th year and had it's worst loss in 2017 (1.9 billion) and second worst loss in 2018 (1.1 billion). It's sales were down 31% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Their sales in the first quarter averaged 14,000 units contributing to their 700 million dollar loss which was their worst quarter ever. Sales in units for April and May are also averaging 14,000 units. Their loss for the second quarter could exceed the first quarter's. The tax credit July 1 goes from $3,750 to $1,875. Their stock is down -33% year to date while the S&P is 17%. That is a difference of 50%. Audi's E Tron is out and the Mercedes EV will be out soon. Both are less expensive then the Model X with a $7,500 tax credit. The Model X is averaging 1,330 units sold per month in 2019. That is a production line setup for less then 16,000 units per year.
Comparing Tesla and Amazon is the truly proverbially apples and oranges. Amazon made a profit in their 9th year. Every year however they were cutting their losses. Tesla is in it's 16th year and had it's worst loss in 2017 (1.9 billion) and second worst loss in 2018 (1.1 billion). It's sales were down 31% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Their sales in the first quarter averaged 14,000 units contributing to their 700 million dollar loss which was their worst quarter ever. Sales in units for April and May are also averaging 14,000 units. Their loss for the second quarter could exceed the first quarter's. The tax credit July 1 goes from $3,750 to $1,875. Their stock is down -33% year to date while the S&P is 17%. That is a difference of 50%. Audi's E Tron is out and the Mercedes EV will be out soon. Both are less expensive then the Model X with a $7,500 tax credit. The Model X is averaging 1,330 units sold per month in 2019. That is a production line setup for less then 16,000 units per year.
07-01-19, 06:38 AM
#65
Pole Position
Not to bring politics into this, but since China owns a majority of the world's supply or mines of exotic metals and minerals needed for batteries, does this mean they will be our overlords if the world goes full electric vehicles?
07-01-19, 07:06 AM
#66
Comparing Tesla and Amazon is the truly proverbially apples and oranges. Amazon made a profit in their 9th year. Every year however they were cutting their losses. Tesla is in it's 16th year and had it's worst loss in 2017 (1.9 billion) and second worst loss in 2018 (1.1 billion). It's sales were down 31% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Their sales in the first quarter averaged 14,000 units contributing to their 700 million dollar loss which was their worst quarter ever. Sales in units for April and May are also averaging 14,000 units. Their loss for the second quarter could exceed the first quarter's. The tax credit July 1 goes from $3,750 to $1,875. Their stock is down -33% year to date while the S&P is 17%. That is a difference of 50%. Audi's E Tron is out and the Mercedes EV will be out soon. Both are less expensive then the Model X with a $7,500 tax credit. The Model X is averaging 1,330 units sold per month in 2019. That is a production line setup for less then 16,000 units per year.
07-01-19, 08:44 AM
#68
Lexus Champion
I found this applicable to the discussion.
Source
The upcoming BMW i4 is a fully electric sports sedan, a low-slung four-door fitted with one or two motors. It promises to be the closest competitor yet to the Tesla Model 3, with the added benefit of having the build quality of a seasoned carmaker.
The i4 won't get its own EV platform: but will instead be based on the 3-/4-series' underpinnings known as the Cluster Architecture, or CLAR. While a one-motor version is conceivable, we expect the i4 to have two motors providing standard all-wheel drive. Expect BMW to offer several power and price levels. The largest battery should last about 350 miles between charges and put up zero-to-60 times in the four-second range. Top speed will likely be governed at a low 125 mph to save juice.
The i4 won't get its own EV platform: but will instead be based on the 3-/4-series' underpinnings known as the Cluster Architecture, or CLAR. While a one-motor version is conceivable, we expect the i4 to have two motors providing standard all-wheel drive. Expect BMW to offer several power and price levels. The largest battery should last about 350 miles between charges and put up zero-to-60 times in the four-second range. Top speed will likely be governed at a low 125 mph to save juice.
07-01-19, 10:35 AM
#69
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
I know I've said this before, but this just is one more sign that, even with a large volume of vehicles in production, the fact that a profit is still doubtful shows that the company simply keeps biting off more than it can chew with its policy of company-owned/company-operated everything, and no private franchises. Bob Lutz stated, in an article for Road & Track magazine, that the idea of company-ownership of everything has never worked on a significant scale in the history of automobiles. Even Henry Ford, whose company owned not just the auto plants but the steel-making plants, rubber-plantations for tires, cargo ships for the Great Lakes, and other facilities involved in auto production, allowed private dealer franchises.
not using dealers SAVES them vast amounts of money (marketing programs, dealer margins, training programs, and on and on) primarily because the uniqueness, buzz, and demand of the vehicles means people will seek them out.
henry ford has been dead over 70 years for one, plus tesla is not making their own tires, doesn't make steel, cargo ships, etc. so not even remotely comparable.
and ford probably allowed dealers because he knew he'd be in trouble with antri-trust monopoly laws in short order. with such a broader market today, tesla didn't have that issue. of course dealer organizations nationwide continue to fight tesla, including, i believe, your state of virginia. this is pathetic, and eventually tesla will prevail everywhere.
07-01-19, 12:22 PM
#70
Hey, to each his own, but every time I see a Model S or 3 parked somewhere in a parking lot I can't help but think that the owner has done a quick calculation that morning as to range and recharging plans. No thanks. I have enough things to worry about without adding more.
07-01-19, 12:42 PM
#71
Lexus Fanatic
Not really. No dealers means inflated prices. Harder to get their hands on a Tesla for the consumer. Lack of competition which is bad for the consumers. Lack of fundraiser from the absence of franchise fees etc etc.
07-01-19, 01:32 PM
#72
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
i disgree 100% with what you're saying, and don't understand your last sentence, but that's all from me on this.
07-01-19, 01:33 PM
#73
Lexus Fanatic
Originally Posted by bitkahuna
of course dealer organizations nationwide continue to fight tesla, including, i believe, your state of virginia.
We do have Tesla shops in Virginia....one is at Tyson's Corner in the D.C. Suburbs, just a few miles from me. In the past, though, I haven't done a full-review there, though, because for a long time, they just didn't keep vehicles in stock, outside of one or two displays, in the stark, warehouse-like showroom. That no-stock policy might (?) be changing now, though, as they have gotten their production lines going.
not using dealers SAVES them vast amounts of money (marketing programs, dealer margins, training programs, and on and on) primarily because the uniqueness, buzz, and demand of the vehicles means people will seek them out.
I'm not quite sure you understand. What they have ARE dealerships....just company-owned ones, where, unlike private-franchise, Tesla has to pay all of the costs of running and maintaining them. That's why Bob Lutz (whom I greatly respect) forecast that they are essentially a company on borrowed time.
Last edited by mmarshall; 07-01-19 at 01:41 PM.
07-01-19, 01:45 PM
#74
Lexus Fanatic
Toyota or GM or Hyundai etc make money off the dealers paying them for the rights to sell their models. In turn, this money is thus used for whatever reasons. In the case of Tesla, they do not have private dealers, so they fit the bill for retail. They fit the bill for upgrades and build outs. Not allowing private franchises to compete for consumer spending is a drawback to the Tesla way. The Tesla way is not wrong, but they are not as competitive for the consumer as a Toyota dealer or Mercedes dealer that might offer better locations, services, and thus prices.
07-01-19, 02:55 PM
#75
Comparing Tesla and Amazon is the truly proverbially apples and oranges. Amazon made a profit in their 9th year. Every year however they were cutting their losses. Tesla is in it's 16th year and had it's worst loss in 2017 (1.9 billion) and second worst loss in 2018 (1.1 billion). It's sales were down 31% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Their sales in the first quarter averaged 14,000 units contributing to their 700 million dollar loss which was their worst quarter ever. Sales in units for April and May are also averaging 14,000 units. Their loss for the second quarter could exceed the first quarter's. The tax credit July 1 goes from $3,750 to $1,875. Their stock is down -33% year to date while the S&P is 17%. That is a difference of 50%. Audi's E Tron is out and the Mercedes EV will be out soon. Both are less expensive then the Model X with a $7,500 tax credit. The Model X is averaging 1,330 units sold per month in 2019. That is a production line setup for less then 16,000 units per year.
However, we have stopped mining rare earths there, because the labour of mining rare earths in China is so much cheaper.
Mining rare earth is also very hazardous.
The Japanese have also found a site to potentially mine rare earths.