Tesla business discussion
12-30-22, 06:12 PM
#151
I am seeing predictions of units sold up 44-47%, short of the 50% forecasted on the last earnings call. We shall see. But their real move would come as they enter different segments. They have two volume selling vehicles now, but need to move into the Corolla sized segment with a car and small SUV.
I saw 421,000 units predicted.
That is massive.
Polestar announced they will reach their forecast of.... 50k for the year.
There is such a huge difference.
Hyundai/Kia with several EV models and strong sales in Korea, USA, Europe, will likely sell little bit less than 300k BEVs this year.
There is such a vast difference. Probably the biggest problem isthat only tesla actually makes money on these.
12-30-22, 08:16 PM
#152
Lexus Fanatic
iTrader: (20)
and if govt gives even more incentives to help car makers make money on ev's, that will only help tesla more.
12-31-22, 02:19 AM
#153
Lexus Test Driver
Is the product quality encouraging customer retention or a "buy it once and never again".
Repeat customers may be a big deal for establishing them as major player.
if it's a quality product that may make them the only real competitor as of now for Tesla but still it looks like so much room left for growth on a global scale.
Almost went right over my head until I read it again.
Kinda hard to "make it up in volume" if you're already loosing money on every sale.
Increasing production just means loosing even more $$$ money. Ouch, not a sustainable business model. haha
Ya'll really think it could in theory hit a low of $100?
Oh man, if that happens there will be blood in the water and the sharks will come. Just ideas.
Undervalued in my opinion at that point and just asking to be gobbled up, just speculating I'm not a nostradamos. lol
Last edited by Margate330; 12-31-22 at 03:38 AM.
12-31-22, 06:48 AM
#154
Dang, I didn't realize Hyundai & Kia were such big players in EV.
Is the product quality encouraging customer retention or a "buy it once and never again".
Repeat customers may be a big deal for establishing them as major player.
if it's a quality product that may make them the only real competitor as of now for Tesla but still it looks like so much room left for growth on a global scale.
Is the product quality encouraging customer retention or a "buy it once and never again".
Repeat customers may be a big deal for establishing them as major player.
if it's a quality product that may make them the only real competitor as of now for Tesla but still it looks like so much room left for growth on a global scale.
So for 2022 quick numbers for BEV only:
Tesla - 1450k
BYD - 900k (+1m PHEVs) - growth of >100%
VW group - 540k
Hyunda/KIA - 300k
Stellantis - 280k
BMW group - 180k
MB - 110k
I dont think anyone else did more than 150k this year. Ford is around 50k at best, bunch of premium Chinese around 100k-150k and not growing quickly enough due to pricing (BYD Is cheap!). Polestar is 50k, GM like 25k. Toyota might end up with 10k.
MG is selling something, and is probably the biggest Chinese brand now worldwide with sales in 80+ countries, but hard to say exactly how much. Their EV sales probably can go on the above list around Hyundai levels and overall sales probably are reaching levels of 600k-700k per year.
For 2023, Tesla will probably grow to 2m, BYD to 1.5m (with another 1.5m of PHEVs). While everyone else will grow, their growth rates of 20-30% will net overall much smaller unit numbers than Tesla/BYD.
12-31-22, 07:09 AM
#155
Lexus Fanatic
Ya'll really think it could in theory hit a low of $100?
Oh man, if that happens there will be blood in the water and the sharks will come. Just ideas.
Undervalued in my opinion at that point and just asking to be gobbled up, just speculating I'm not a nostradamos. lol
Last edited by Toys4RJill; 12-31-22 at 07:15 AM.
12-31-22, 10:20 AM
#156
Lexus Fanatic
What's the difference between slow and slowing down? And how does increasing sales 40-50% every year mean sales are slowing. Can someone explain?
12-31-22, 01:37 PM
#157
If they release new models (cybertruck will add to 2023 deliveries), they can sustain the 40-50% growth rate. They can't sustain that with just the 3 and the Y for much longer, at those price points.
12-31-22, 02:09 PM
#158
I am reading now that they stuck it to Musk and denied the 2023 $7500 tax credit to the Model Y 5 seater. And the model3 may lose the tax credit in March unless the battery sourcing is changed. So the people who jumped on the 2022 $7500 Tesla rebate + 10K supercharge miles, did very well.
Last edited by lexusnyca; 12-31-22 at 02:14 PM.
12-31-22, 02:18 PM
#159
Pole Position
Tesla remains fundamentally rock solid. Profitable, growing, profitable product in the pipeline and they are still the industry leader. Musk’s lunacy has wiped out much of the premium, at least for now, but Tesla’s business is absolutely solid. Predictions of Tesla’s/TSLA’s demise are way off the mark. TSLA will bounce back as soon as Musk shows the market that he is capable of at least some restraint. .
12-31-22, 06:12 PM
#160
Lexus Fanatic
Media hysteria about Musk is nothing new remember when the Model 3 was having production problems? Same narratives, Elon is insane he needs to step down the sky is falling Tesla is doomed. Sounds exactly like what is happening with the media now, writing articles about how Elon has no idea what he is doing.
So this is how the government rewards the most American cars on the road, shuts them out of incentives. Brilliant.
So this is how the government rewards the most American cars on the road, shuts them out of incentives. Brilliant.
01-01-23, 02:58 PM
#161
As to the 50% growth, that will be impossible to maintain as they grow to certain volume.
01-01-23, 03:41 PM
#162
Lead Lap
01-01-23, 04:26 PM
#163
Pole Position
The only reason the 5 seat Model Y doesn’t qualify for the credit is because it’s classified as a sedan/wagon and not an SUV so it’s subject to the lower 55,000 MSRP cap
for qualification purposes. More expensive 7 seat Model Y configurations do qualify for the credit as they are classified as SUVs and for them the MSRP cap is 80,000. Seems arbitrary, but that’s the reason. There’s no agenda here. Those particular 5 seat configurations just don’t qualify.
for qualification purposes. More expensive 7 seat Model Y configurations do qualify for the credit as they are classified as SUVs and for them the MSRP cap is 80,000. Seems arbitrary, but that’s the reason. There’s no agenda here. Those particular 5 seat configurations just don’t qualify.
01-01-23, 05:29 PM
#164
Lexus Fanatic
The only reason the 5 seat Model Y doesn’t qualify for the credit is because it’s classified as a sedan/wagon and not an SUV so it’s subject to the lower 55,000 MSRP cap
for qualification purposes. More expensive 7 seat Model Y configurations do qualify for the credit as they are classified as SUVs and for them the MSRP cap is 80,000. Seems arbitrary, but that’s the reason. There’s no agenda here. Those particular 5 seat configurations just don’t qualify.
for qualification purposes. More expensive 7 seat Model Y configurations do qualify for the credit as they are classified as SUVs and for them the MSRP cap is 80,000. Seems arbitrary, but that’s the reason. There’s no agenda here. Those particular 5 seat configurations just don’t qualify.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/RWD
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/AWD
01-01-23, 06:01 PM
#165
IRS is classifying the 5-seater differently than every other government agency. Nothing to see here.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/RWD
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/AWD
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/RWD
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2022/T...5-SEAT/SUV/AWD