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Imagine considering a 40% YOY increase as a failure... Sheesh. Tha market expects a lot from Tesla. They usually get it, too.
To be fair, Tesla did miss their own estimate of 500K cars in Q4. Analysts were as low as 400K to about 430K. Numbers were in flux as usual.
Tesla is trying to flatten the delivery curve to control cost to manufacture and delivery bottle necks.
Let's see how the market reacts. Valuation is only down what, $700B this year? Still bigger than the next 4 or 5 automakers combined, so there's that.
It says a lot about how well Tesla is doing when Elon can go off and be a moron on Twitter yet still have Tesla sell as many vehicles as it does. He's established a firm foundation for the brand that any other EV startup wishes it had, and at this point since he's been spending most of his time goofing off so much with his new toy, I wonder if he's even needed to run the company besides being a mascot like Colonel Sanders (assuming his public image survives his self-inflicted damage).
It says a lot about how well Tesla is doing when Elon can go off and be a moron on Twitter yet still have Tesla sell as many vehicles as it does. He's established a firm foundation for the brand that any other EV startup wishes it had, and at this point since he's been spending most of his time goofing off so much with his new toy, I wonder if he's even needed to run the company besides being a mascot like Colonel Sanders (assuming his public image survives his self-inflicted damage).
The more moronic Elon becomes, the better off Tesla will be. We are a society of morons, so when a leader is one.... it's a good thing. Everything is going normal here.
The amnesia from some that have posted in this thread is remarkable I'd say 90%+ predictions turned out the exact opposite. It's perfectly fine to be wrong it is another thing entirely to post wishful thinking as fact.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Let's see how the market reacts. Valuation is only down what, $700B this year? Still bigger than the next 4 or 5 automakers combined, so there's that.
No one talks about Rivian or Lucid stock, the Tesla killers. Wonder why that is.
TSLA could drop another 50% would not surprise me investors have become incredibly irrational. The inevitable short squeeze is going to be glorious.
Tesla Inc. is set to pay more for the lithium that powers its electric vehicles after a supplier amended their deal amid a relentless price rally of the metal.
They announce what they are calling their "gen 3" chassis in March, supposedly low manufacturing costs. From what I read, its a 3 piece assembly to make a chassis.
The article Jill posted says the price is variable and guesses the price will go up. So I guessed 1% this is just as accurate as what the article provides. Further, lithium is only one component in the battery the total cost is far more nuanced than just so say, lithium is going up therefore the battery pack is going to cost way more to make which is the implication.
This also does not take into account economy of scale, volume purchasing and a whole host of other factors. The up coming earnings call will give up more detail although it it still difficult if not impossible to know exactly how much each cell/cell type costs Tesla to make. And of course material costs will affect every auto maker, the one buying in the highest volume likely gets the best price.
Originally Posted by Margate330
How much Lithium product does it take to make the battery, anyone know?
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Depends on the cell type, about 12kg per pack from what I've read.
The article Jill posted says the price is variable and guesses the price will go up. So I guessed 1% this is just as accurate as what the article provides. Further, lithium is only one component in the battery the total cost is far more nuanced than just so say, lithium is going up therefore the battery pack is going to cost way more to make which is the implication.
This also does not take into account economy of scale, volume purchasing and a whole host of other factors. The up coming earnings call will give up more detail although it it still difficult if not impossible to know exactly how much each cell/cell type costs Tesla to make. And of course material costs will affect every auto maker, the one buying in the highest volume likely gets the best price.
Depends on the cell type, about 12kg per pack from what I've read.
^^ That was an awesome explanation Lex2k.
Ok, so we have 12kg per battery and this is approx 26.5lbs.
Now when I have time I'll have to convert price per ton in China Juans to dollars to see what that means, unless someone has the digits.
PS- Buying by the ton could be considered "buying in bulk", just saying. haha
I know what you meant, just messin, they probably buying in many tons or boat load at a time.
To close the loop, the 5 seat model Y doesn't get the credit because it doesn't qualify as a utility vehicle as was correctly noted a few pages back.
It doesn't qualify because to do so it has to pass some specific tests, in two parts.
The first is it must have AWD/4WD and/or a GVWR over 6000 lbs. It does meet this part.
The second is it must satisfy at least four of the following characteristics calculated when the automobile is at curb weight, on a level surface, with the front wheels parallel to the automobile's longitudinal centerline, and the tires inflated to the manufacturer's recommended pressure:
(i) Approach angle of not less than 28 degrees.
(ii) Breakover angle of not less than 14 degrees.
(iii) Departure angle of not less than 20 degrees.
(iv) Running clearance of not less than 20 centimeters.
(v) Front and rear axle clearances of not less than 18 centimeters.
It fails on most of these (I researched only ground clearance, approach angle and departure angle, they all failed so there's no need to look at the others)
The 7 seater qualifiers as it has three rows (it would also likely qualify as a van or light truck). The relevant test is this: "For non-passenger automobiles manufactured in model year 2008 and beyond, for vehicles equipped with at least 3 rows of designated seating positions as standard equipment."
Note - "non passenger automobiles" is the verbiage referring to vehicles which seek to qualify as a van, utility or truck - i.e. "not a car"
So, in short, if the Model Y doesn't qualify as a utility vehicle, van or truck it can only qualify under the 55K automobile threshold. It's essentially a 65K wagon so doesn't qualify.
I have not researched the vehicles on the table posted above. Two qualify any way as they were under 55K MSRP. The others, most likely, simply meet the four out of five test.
The solution is simple, if Tesla wishes to pursue it. Raise the Model Y 5 seater so it meets the ground clearance and approach/departure angle requirement plus one more.
Of note, the IRS cautions to disregard window stickers and marketing materials as the classification rules don't care about those. We've seen that in this thread. People assumed the Model Y 5 seat is an SUV because that's what everyone calls it. It turns out for these purposes it's a 65K car, not a 65K SUV. The 7 seater is an SUV, so if the MSRP is under 80K it qualifies (assuming you meet the other tests such as income etc). It does not matter that the 7 seat Model Y would also fail the capability characteristics, it gets by based on three rows of seating test.
01-02-23, 08:01 PM
