Certain countries will drive EVs for sure such as Europe, China, and the US. Most developed nations will probably go full EV by mid 2030s. The developing nations will remain ICE until economics dictate the feasibility of going EV. At a certain point, it will be cheaper to buy and own an EV and thats when the transition will probably begin in those countries.

 

^^^ Towing companies will see their business soar, lol. Diesel powered tow trucks to get all the EVs with dead batteries off the road.

 

I've never even been close to running out of juice. I have roughly 250-300 miles of range and the car warns me like crazy and starts re-routing me to available chargers when it gets within 75 miles of a depleted battery. With enough infrastructure, its not a concern.

 

The US is larger then most countries, many countries are smaller then some US states plus we have at least 1 if not several cities for each state. Totally different from the UK, Japan, or many Euro countries. There is no way public transportation can fill the travel needs in most of the US, personal vehicles are critical for most people but it is that way in many developed countries too. There is no reason to change how the US is setup, it works, car ownership is not that expensive or difficult aside from maybe parts of NYC. Only politicians/govt can/will make car ownership expensive and difficult and we can and hopefully will vote them out when/if they try it.

 

Not sure how much you traveled the US but public transportation does exist in most states/areas outside of cities, there are busing systems in most areas, trains, etc. It is not just major cities. It is not setup to be super convenient but that is because most people don't use it, don't want it, and have personal vehicles. I used buses in Delaware my first year in college to travel home on the weekends which was over 15 miles away and that was a while ago and not in the city.

What do you mean by there are no sidewalks outside of US cities? There are sidewalks everywhere in the US outside cities, in the suburbs, in different areas. We have a sidewalk on our front lawn, our entire subdivision and connecting subdivisions has a sidewalk, outside my neighborhood along the main road there is a wide sidewalk.

 

I don't think so, the realities of doing that are pretty much nonexistent. There is a lot of talk and bluster about doing that but I don't see it happening once reality sets in, all the problems it will cause, all the costs which will bankrupt countries/carmakers, etc. There is no point in doing it, it solves nothing forcing EV's on the population, forcing them so fast, most people don't want them. I kind of feel they will be rejected in many cases, kind of like they are now and the big push is not going to happen or happen anywhere near what some are blustering about.

 

Public transportation does not fill ALL travel needs in other countries either, but car dependency for everyday tasks in USA causes a lot of problems that EVs are not going to solve.

 

You live in California, likely LA or around a large city that is really the only place that has lots of charging infrastructure, lots of rich people who buy fashionable cars, and is very different from the rest of the US. Have you tried taking a long trip to the Mid West, South, East Coast in your EV?

 

You keep saying that EVs are being rejected but I don't see it. EV sales have doubled since last year and will continue to increase dramatically. I also completely disagree that most people don't want them. I think most people do want them but held by fears of range anxiety and lack of infrastructure. Solving those issues will get the people to switch without hesitation.

I really enjoyed my IS350. I can't imagine how good it would be with a Tesla drivetrain because an EV powertrain annihilates the puny V6.

 

It goes both ways, maybe most people don't use public transportation because it is so lousy. And if you drive around the suburbs, the sidewalks are mostly an afterthought, they are usually narrow, only exist on one side of the road, or suddenly end from block to block. There are no options for walkable, local activities and it results in horrible commuter traffics, obesity and lack so socialization for children.

 

EV's solve nothing really, in many cases they will cause more problems.

I don't think car dependency in the US causes many problems though it is really inconvenient in many parts if your car is in the shop/wrecked/you have no car,I dealt with not having a car and a job pretty far away for a little while and it was a pain but a public train system to my job was totally unrealistic too. You just need a car in the US and most developed countries as a adult. Many people have extra fridges/freezers in the garage, store a lot of food/supplies in case they are without a car/can't get to stores. Many have multiple cars just in case one is out of commission.

 

I never cared for public transportation whether it was good or bad, I just like the freedom of a car and not depending on a bus or subway. I did enjoy traveling by train across the states when I was really young, I would like to do that again and have my own room. I used the subway system in South Korea a few times to get feeder fish for our oscar, I was not a huge fan but it worked, we even used the subway to travel to the fish store, get the fish and rocks for the aquarium and bring it back to base which was a adventure, my dad did not want to drive out there because he was so unfamiliar with that area of Seoul and it is not like he could just ask for directions or read the signs when he doesn't know the language.

Big cities like NYC and right outside big cities have terrible traffic and it makes you miserable, once you get away from big cities traffic is normally not bad in the suburbs at most times and there are many alternate roads to take. In my area you aren't too far from most restaurants, supermarkets, stores, activities. It is a 10-30 min drive which I don't mind, there is a supermarket, few stores, restaurants, gas stations, a hospital, and gym within walking distance but it would be a pretty long walk I would not want to make unless I had too, I do go for a lot of walks in my neighborhood at night though and enjoy them, safe and relaxing. I have lived in cities, military bases, suburbs, and a little out in rural areas and I mostly prefer the suburbs. I do like some smaller less crowded cities and would not mind living in a nicer area right outside them as long as it was in a house, military bases are generally pretty nice too, our base in Seoul was odd because it was pretty open, not packed but the city all around it was packed, cramped, full of buildings, it was sort of like living in Central Park with NYC surrounding you. There are some more rural areas I like too, quiet, lots of freedom to do what you want, it would be nice to be able to shoot and hunt outside your house without the neighbors calling the cops.

 

EV's make up around 2% of sales, they are being rejected by most buyers outside of Cali/LA, even in Cali 1 in 5 EV owners went back to ICE cars. They may or may not increase dramatically, the trend may wear off or settle at around 4 or 5% which isn't that much. Pretty much all the people I talk to don't want them, they find nothing wrong with their ICE vehicles and like them, they certainly don't want to be forced into them and it is not just about range anxiety. There just is not much of a reason to get one aside from if you have a home and only take short trips you can recharge it at home, that is about it.

Not all EV's are going to be like your Tesla, most that will be affordable will be much slower then a IS350. Our neighbor at our beach house had a Chevy Bolt, they are slow, I rode in a Leaf, it is slow, EV's for the masses our not going to accelerate like your Tesla or a IS350 in most cases. I bet a Porsche Taycan is lots of fun, it is really fast, I would have lots of fun in it but it is really expensive and not all of them are super fast.

 

Well that's precisely the problem, lol. Most people who are not enthusiasts do not want a car, rather they need one - just look at all the automotive misery most people drive.

And don't even get me started at American shopping culture, it was absolutely shocking for me when I arrived here. American car culture created those gigantic supermarkets with huge parking lots, which in turn contributed to obesity as people buy carloads of useless junk food to stock their fridges and end up overeating. People of walmart is strictly an american phenomenon, lol.

The one thing I like about NYC is being able to shop locally. Before the pandemic forced cafes to close, we barely even kept any food in the fridge, we mostly dined out.

 

The 1 in 5 that went back were people that bought crappy little Fiats and realized that range was bad. Those that buy the longer range don't go back because there are significant advantages to EV ownership if you are in the right situation (like garage with available infrastructure).

An inherent advantage in EVs is that speed is ridiculously easy to make. The Bolt and Leaf are based on FWD architecture so they limit power purposefully. Go drive a Mach E or Ioniq 5 which are priced in the $40-50k and they are easily low 5s cars in mid trim. In the future, I expect most cars to easily be in the low 4s as baseline speeds as range isn't impacted by power output of the motor. A 1100hp tri-motor Model S has a 20 mile difference than a long range Model S that only makes 700hp (and its mostly due to aero and tires vs. motor output).

You have your thoughts on future of EV and thats fine...i think its counter to what a lot of people think. We can only wait and see.