Because politicians and lobbyists live in the real world, and know demand for energy isn’t going anywhere, and energy isnt produced from thin air. They will come up with more farce and phony laws to extort more money from the end consumers.

 

i believe you, but source link for this statement?

maybe, but i think s. korea will be in the game too. also, the ev market is driving manufacturing automation even faster so cost differences will be lessened.

exactly och. norway has practically made it a totally stupid move to not buy an ev. having said that, it's such a toasty country in winter that i'm sure using a charging station outside is wonderful.


exactly.

it can be both... tesla did not need that 'credit' money from its competitors and it may have caused competitors to struggle to have capital to compete.

 

Toyota has $80 billion cash on hand and half a trillion in assets money is not the issue.

 

there's more than 1 other manufacturer than tesla and all others are not as flush with cash.

toyota is obviously marching to their own beat... i don't get their strategy entirely, but they certainly still sell a ton of vehicles, and have brought hybrids mainstream. the whole hydrogen thing is a national strategy they're a part of even though i believe it will be largely pointless longer term. but no doubt they're working on a bunch EV related things right now, hopefully it will be great.

 

Toyota is likely going to have the best battery tech with their solid state batteries, but they are too pragmatic to make an awesome car. Its going to be some boring prius like EV, but it is going to sell in droves.

 

Just look if Toyota is making money or not. GM is making from their last earnings report and they did it by cancelling all of their money losing off-shore brands as well cancelling their domestic sedans. Mercedes is making money but I don't quite follow them. So is Hyundai as they are doing well. Toyota's strength is their sub- $60K products.....GM's strength is there are upper priced trucks and SUVs. Toyota will eventually show up in the battery electric segment which is microscopic when comparing the market share of battery cars to worldwide production.

 

There aren't accurate analogies. There's nothing broken with ICE vehicles; look at an S-Class. 0-60 in 4.5ish seconds and 30MPG HWY. A Suburban that weighs 3 tons will get close to 25MPG. ICEs have been refined over the last 100 years, especially the last 40 or so. That some people don't like that they emit CO2 is the whole deal. Forget technology and progress, it goes out the window to many of the pro-EV crowd....like I've said my 17 year old LS430 was a SULEV, the lowest you can get.....for a 20 year old vehicle design. Even still today, the 27MPG it gets highway with a light foot is still pretty darn good for how old it is.

I don't want an EV, I'm not saying you but lots of people this might as well be politics. I have no interest in charging a car and I wouldn't be able to take any trips. I just bought a truck to literally go anywhere it possibly can on and off road all over this continent. Charging just isn't going to work with that, for a very long time at least. We also really have no raw data to judge overall reliability of this newest technology. And my guess is half of the country doesn't want any of it, so there's that, too. I've been asking all of my friends and family (from all spectrums) and none want an EV or are interested in one.

I just think some people think we are going from 0-60 in 2.5 seconds when it's really going to take about 10.5, and access to charging is a big part of that. Lonnnng way to go before EVs rule the road.

 

You are saying that Big Oil and auto companies planned and "rigged" things to ENCOURAGE the sale of EVs, the vehicles that will eventually decimate oil company revenues, and destroy ICE manufacturers who can't compete...to get some carbon credits. How remarkably stupid of them.

 

The analogies absolutely apply to those who strain for reasons EVs can't succeed. I have no dog in the fight (own the last car I'll ever buy) except as an observer of comments here and on YouTube, which will without a doubt prove as wrong as these people were. In no case was there anything "broken," as, debatedly, ICEs aren't broken. These experts lacked the imagination that Ford, Edison, Jobs, Bezos, Musk had and have. :

Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner (1881-1958), founder of Warner Brothers, in 1927

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson (1874-1956), Chairman of IBM, 1943

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” --Bill Gates 1981

 

I didn't say they can't succeed. I just said we are nowhere close to mass adoption and it will be a while. Plus, half of the country doesn't want EVs. That also has an impact.

Americans don't like to be forced out of things they like, which also is a different thing entirely than the quotes above.

I have no dog in the fight either, really. I have 3 V8 vehicles I won't get rid of, probably ever. My Land Cruiser will last until my 70s easily, LS430 probably too. ICEs won't be outlawed ever, this is America.

If we get the itch we can always lease some German hotrod but the two high end Lexuses we will never part with, ever.

 

Of course we are not close to mass adoption. But so many anti-Ever's comments posit reasons why EVs will never be mass successes. There will be batteries or other storage techniques that are not dreamed of today, motors different from the heavy ones in today's EVs. Innovative construction techniques, greatly reducing costs: Tesla has all 9 (I think the number is) of the largest injection molding machines ever made, they already cast the chassis and bodies for some models in just two pieces, eliminating dozens of parts and the need to install them, and will soon be casting cars in just one piece. More robots are used to make Teslas than any other car, eliminating labor costs. "Wrist radios" existed only in **** Tracy comics--they were impossible--tubes were larger than light bulbs, and batteries as large as potatoes. Color TV was never going to be common because it used a motor-driven colored wheel. The CEO of IBM didn't foresee chips, which make possible PCs. The quotes bear directly on the point that the potential of EVs hasn't been scratched.
Americans are "forced" to buy cars that deliver much more mpg than 20 years ago, they are "forced" to buy cars with seatbelts and air bags, because government addressed dangers inherent in driving. Fossil fuels are causing climate changes which have the potential to end human life on earth, and ICEs are a significant cause of the changes. The International Energy Agency recently called for an end to new development of fossil fuels. Norway recognized its responsibility and did its part earlier than other countries, but more will follow, sooner rather than later, despite the efforts of Big Oil to halt it. The U.S., at federal and state levels, already give financial incentives to purchasers of EVs, a tacit acknowledgement that ICE pollution must be reduced. There will be a time, within the lives of today's youngsters, that manufacture of ICE vehicles will be discouraged, perhaps prohibited. Can't happen? Americans won't stand for it? That was the common belief at the idea public smoking could be banned.
My first phone was a foot tall, the earpiece was on a cord, it had to be rented from ATT. Long-distance calls were placed through operators and costly. Overseas calls were for the wealthy, and had to be booked in advance. My first camera was the size of a shoe box, film was on a long celluloid strip, had to be mailed to Kodak for processing, you'd get the prints in a couple of weeks. My father's 16mm movie camera weighed 4 pounds and was driven by a hand-cranked spring. Its film, too, had to be mailed to Kodak. Home movies were a novelty, as it was expensive. Adding machines were hand cranked and used only by business, because they were big and had about 100 buttons--training was required to use them.
No one imagined, even in science fiction, that in about 60 years there'd be a phone that fit in a pocket, could call anywhere in the world almost instantly, at little cost, you and the person called could see each other, could take still and motion pictures, available instantly, have the power of millions of adding machines. At an inflation-adjusted cost of perhaps two of my father's cameras.
My first commercial airline flight was in a 20-seat plane that took hours from New York City to Miami. It wasn't but a few decades before men orbited the earth, a bit more until I saw on a TV a man walk on the moon.
I'm bored with hearing how things can't happen, or not for a long time. EVs are a vehicle whose time has arrived. It doesn't matter if anyone doesn't think so, presents all the reasons it can't happen. Such as, when it seemed autos would replace horses, "Try going to sleep in one, and expect it to know the way home, and take you there."

 

Zammer and AJT123 - great posts.

EVs are like the early days of mobile phones right now... they're here, the growing in popularity, but more importantly, they're rapidly improving. There's also massive competition.

AJT123 - you love your stout older ICE vehicles. You're right, the LX570 is a 'go anywhere' but also comfortable beast! Your LS is an incredibly smooth and refined sedan. (As you know I recently decided to get the Lexus LC with the old school v8!) But you still have to put gas in them (often in the LX!). You have to do oil changes for both of them. You (and I) don't drive a whole lot so these are not big inconveniences but you're not 'everyone'. For those that can charge at home, and for whom the range is adequate, EVs are wonderful. No maintenance, no going to stinky gas stations or dealing with stinky gas. Super quiet. Super fast.

charging on the road is slow, sure, but improving rapidly. In 5 years it could be little different than filling a gas tank. At that point there really will be no point in buying an ICE vehicle. And what the objective differences don't drive (in terms of decision making), the regulators will with taxes, subsidies, etc. we could easily see gas well over $5 gallon all over the u.s. soon.

AJT - i agree EV adoption isn't likely to be super fast. We might be at 10-20% ev new vehicle sales in 5 years. Then there's the whole used car market which is vast. But the EV market will grow.

I think a tipping point will come from china... tons and tons of new EVs that are cheaper and remarkable.

 

You are using undeniable serious revolutions/improvements in technology and other areas, EV's are not serious revolutions or improvements, they are mainly just different means to do the same thing and in ways more compromised/worse, there is no serious revolution or improvement that can't be denied with EV's. EV's don't fly, they don't float in water, they aren't powered by water, a quick charge does not even last thousands of miles/weeks with no degradation from temperature. You can't compare EV's and ICE to a old computer that is the size of a car/closet and weighs hundreds of pounds to a PC/laptop/smart phone that are much smaller, cheaper, far more capable, etc. EV's have been around a very long time in some form/experimentation, it was in the last 10 or 15 years that they are tolerable enough for there to be a market for them mainly for people who live in Cali and cities who don't take long trips. Very few buy them especially outside Cali and they are all pretty much Teslas, it is more image then anything, just like Prius. They are not revolutionary at all but certain politicians see them as because they know forcing them on the population will give them more power, control, money and that is what it is really all about.

 

( You remind one to never underestimate the power of denial )

while there have been electric vehicles for a long time (i drove an electric milk delivery vehicle as a kid in england!), there's a huge difference between those of the past and mainstream usable, comfortable, even luxurious vehicles that can go at high speeds for very long distances and with the best of charging stations can 're-fuel' in less than an hour. It's not just a mild upgrade from the past, it's an ENORMOUS change.

your argument is like saying a modern iPhone isn't a lot different to a land line phone of 100 years ago. Yes they both make phone calls, but the unlimited OTHER THINGS an iphone can do, plus that it's wireless, tiny, has a beautiful color display, can communicate via video not just audio, can store tons of information and entertainment content, can do payments, can control a car, and on, and on, and on.

But hey, you're entitled to diss the whole EV industry. Perhaps it's why Elon Musk is one of the richest persons on earth and you're not.

but putting all that aside, whether you consider global warming / climate change 'real' or 'happening' or in any sense a danger to humanity, i think we can agree that pollution is bad, and ICE cars, while having comes an enormous way (through technology, innovation, and legislation) to lessening their emissions, they still pollute. Getting to a world with largely zero emission vehicles is a giant win for the planet. We still have other MAJOR obstacles of industrial pollution, container, cruise, and other ships on the high seas, etc., but hopefully over time, better solutions will be found for them too.

 

An electric car existed before an ICE car. Mass adoption will never happen if it is all battery.