Since my 2008 fully loaded Madator Red Mica GS350 with Cashmere interior comes in in 10 days -- HOORAY! -- I need to decide on the length of the lease to go with. To make this decision, I like to know your collective wisdom on when the really new model (4GS) will come in.

When do you think (and what is your logic) on when the 4GS will show up, e.g. available in 2011 as a 2012 model? Or ...? (Actually, I could care less what year they put on it. I want an idea of how long from now it will be that the 4GS will be available for lease/purchase.)

Ideas/thoughts/theories please ...

 

If they follow a six-year cycle, which I consider to be the most likely for a Lexus sedan other than the ES, I think the 4GS would likely be introduced as a 2012 model some time in 2011, just my thought ...

 

well the 2gs was 8 yrs!! (1998-2005) so If that's the case again then the next model 4gs would be 2014. (released in mid 2013) but depends on lexus really. There's no telling

 

Wasn't 1GS 5 years? 93 to 97 model year? (I'm not sure on start date of it.)

2LS was 2001-2006. So it was only 6 years, I think.

 

Ouch. I can't see this generation lasting 8 years. The 2GS was in its last
legs at the beginning of 2005 and the car was badass for its time. The
3GS has much stiffer competition and the truth is it does not stand out
(as much as I love mine).

Lexus needs to up the ante for the 4GS and I hope the cycle is not longer
than 6 years. Believe it or not the 3GS has already been out for almost 3
years and it is still getting recalls like the fuel pump one that has been
recently announced.

I would wait until late 2013 or 2014 if I wanted another GS, but maybe a
rock solid LS is what I really want by 2011

 

That's SIX years

Yes, I hope they won't let the 3GS drag on for 8 years like they did with the 2GS . . .

 

Here is more data (looked in wikipedia for info):

IS: 6 years to 2IS
ES: 3 years to 2ES, 6 years to 3ES, 4 years to 4ES, 5 years to 5ES
LS: 5 years to 2LS, 6 years to 3LS, 6 years to 4LS
SC: 10 years to 2SC
RX: 6 years to 2RX
LX: 2 years to 2LX, 10 years to 3LX

While our GS: 5 years to 2GS, 8 years to 3GS

From this it looks like to me that Lexus doesn't like to keep a generation out for more than 6 years, if one looks at cars as opposed to SUVs, and, if one ignores the SC, since Lexus seems to be ignoring it. On the other hand, if Lexus gives up on the GS, as it appears to me that it has given up on the SC, then all bets are off on how long it will be until te 4GS comes out.

What do YOU think?

 

Something is wrong with that date, at least for the LS. It should be:
1LS - 1990-1994 (4 years)
2LS - 1995-2000 (5 years)
3LS - 2001-2006 (5 years)

Althouh the 2LS received a major redesign in 1997, that it should qualify as a new generation.

 

Counted them for you ^^ in bold

 

^^^ that is correct
n
Also, let us not forget the 3GS debuted as in, sold on dealer lots as of Feb 2005 as a 2006 model. So that kind of throws things off.
The 3 will have been around 4 years this spring, even though from a model year perspective, it has been around 3 years (2006, 2007, 2008).

 

well I don't know about a 4GS for atleast 6 or 7yrs more cuz all the talk thats been aroung the net about the GSF is that it will be out late 2011 so I think we should take that into consideration before we start talking about a 4GS unless they wait till the 4GS to bring out the GSF.

 

Ignoring for a minute any more minor tweaks to the data above from the wikipedia, what do you think, based on this data -- or on anything else you've read -- when will the 4GS will be available (release year, not model year)?

 

I saw 2011 as a 2012 model. I don't think Lexus is as happy with this generation in comparison to how well the IS and LS have been received, even if it is meeting sales results.

LExus also knows Nissan/Infiniti is now a player in this segment and I think their competative spirit will rise to the occasion. Its only been Lexus vs the Germans for far too long.

 

You might well be right, but I don't think so.

Here's my logic:

For the other GS cars, the IS, ES and LS, they have never been more than 6 years between generations. I think Lexus made a mistake in letting the 2GS go on for 8 years. I don't think they'll do that again. And I certainly don't buy your theory that they'll let the 3GS go on for 9-10 years all total.

My guess is 6 years for the total life of the 3GS, based on the IS, ES and LS generations, which have had a minimum of 3 years, an average of 5 years and a maximum of 6 years. So we should see a 4GS available in 2011 as a 2012 model.

 

Lexus might let the GS/IS/LS go beyond 6 years but I doubt it, not with the fierce competition of today. What they have stated, is they will not let Lexus vehicles go on for years without engine updates. They will follow the Germans, who update engines all the time, even as the car has a long model cycle.
The GS is the first to display this, debuting as the GS 300/430 then moving to the GS 350/460 in the same bodystyle.