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cargurus.com puts the "live market value" at around $23k for a 2006 gs300 with 65k. i think prices are inflated due to the tsunami, so dealers are using this to their advantage. i would stick to $22k max even with CPO, cause it's still a buyers market regardless.
i was the one negotiating on the 2008 gs460, and the dealer won't come down from $40k. again, prices are inflated but should come down after the summer and with the release of the 4th gen GS. it's just not a great time to be buying a lexus now.
That's a great point on the 4th Gen GS. No matter how much uglier it is going to be, (and sadly it looks like it's going be a very ungainly car) the dealers will tell you they can't give you much for your old school 3rd Gen GS. Of course to the guy coming into buy a used 3rd Gen GS they'll say "OH, well everyone actually loves the old 3rd Gen ones, I can get $2,000 over blue book on these babies."