Ended up solving the issue, had to replace the entire sun roof assembly. Removing the headliner was the only tedious part.

 

I finally made time a week ago to dig into this. I'm going t9 order a junk yard sunroof assembly and install it. For now I tugged and pulled on what is left the belts to realign the sunroof and then close it properly.
Next time lubing the sunroof tracks will be on the list of things to do with a used purchase right next to fluids instead of in the fall.

 

I found the belts from several sources using the diagram above. Toyota/Lexus part number 63205-48010. Prices range from $32 on Aliexpress to almost $400 from a dealership. I may consider this option in the spring.