DeepBlue99

So at this point I'm pretty much set on picking up a GS FSport most likely within the next 3-6 months. Thanks again forum for all the great info and advice!

I have weighed the pros-cons of '15 vs '16 and am leaning towards '16. So the question is, when would be the best time to be in the market for a '16 GS FSport? Now is obviously a bad time since the 3 year lease returns are only just trickling in and the prices are mostly in high 30's for CPO ones. Is there such a thing as an optional time to catch the jet stream if you will?

I'm not in a huge hurry right now, since I do have a set of wheels and they work fine. I would like to get this done around New Years though. Worried that I may be rushing the
'16s availability and wont get into optimal price window.

np20412

The optimal price window will be next fall. By then all the leases will have been turned in and there will be some units unsold on lots, where prices will come down. This is the trend that has followed for years.

I bought my 2014 in September of 2017, which was off-lease. If you wait even 6 months after that, you'll get one for even cheaper but I understand not wanting to wait 1.5 years. - but for that you'll have to pay a bit more.

jordanhigg

it is all pretty relative. the values of cars change every two weeks and yes the lease returns matter but if your getting a 2016 today vs next September, of course, it will be cheaper its a year older.

Buy 2016 in December and closer towards the end of the month. Even the last week, a dealership will want another sale on the 2018 books so you can haggle with them. My search for a 2013-2015 was hard due to the fact that I wanted to find a clean car. I was appalled at the shape of many cars, all with under 50k miles.

DeepBlue99

This was actually my default plan. December, end of the month... close the deal on Christmas or New Years eve if necessary. Just wishing there was some way for me to have a decently accurate prediction of prices within that time frame. I suppose I can use '15s as my baseline.

er34

I don't think there is a huge demand for these cars, they are great cars, but there are still alot of people out there that believe BMW/Mercedes/Audi to be superior.

It's just about finding the right dealership that will work with you, and it will probably mean you need to travel farther to get the car you want.

16's started selling in 2015 Q3(at least around here), so they should start appearing everywhere. Sure you can wait another 6 months to get 2k off, but life is too short for that... you already saved a bunch of money buying used...

er34

Also, do your homework and keep a close eye on possible flood-damaged cars.

UDel

I would have a great deal price in mind and work with that price now, just look and ask around, you may be surprised what kind of deal you get when you are in no rush to buy and a place really wants to sell a car.

DeepBlue99

Thats whats been puzzling for me. I know GSs are great cars, but they are not in demand and this whole segment is shrinking fast. SUV's are ascending and sales numbers for this entire category are way down. Not only that, but Lexus definitely takes a back seat to its German competitors in this particular category.

Still, I have spoken with a number of Lexus dealers withing a 50 mile radius who stubbornly refused to deal. Nothing beyond a few hundred off the listed price. Meanwhile, the car has been sitting on their lot for 3 months and is not going anywhere. All the while, they continue to insist that I am getting a great deal... want me to look at all this expensive work they did to certify the car... and talk about how their price compares favorably to other overpriced cars that I wont buy listed by other dealers in the area... etc. Oh, and my favorite... keep representing purchase price in terms of monthly payments and not overall inclusive cost. Like I'm some sort of an idiot.

I have purchased over a dozen cars to date (including an RX350 for my wife) most of which were CPOs, some as far as 250 miles away, but I fail to recall such a weird alignment of conditions that I seem to be encountering in this case.

I guess I need to expand my radius a bit.

mylehigh1

The only problem I have with waiting for the "right moment" is that the really nice example, in great condition, with the right color, could get snapped up by someone else the day before you decide to shop around. It happened to me once and I wound up settling for a car with my third favorite color scheme. Sounds like minutae, but the car's going to be living with you for a while. Get the one that speaks to you. I always test drive at least 5 or 6 cars before I know I've found the "one". And have an acceptable "Plan B" with another dealer. Dealers can tell when you're committed to buy a specific car, and you'll have no leverage unless they know you're prepared to walk away.

mylehigh1

When I was shopping for 2015's in the NY/NJ/CT area good examples of AWD models went fast. Very little inventory. I had dealers contact me when the cars came in. They were always sold within a week. Same story with Acura TLX AWD models. BMW AWD cars were easier to find, but the ones that looked like good deals also moved quickly.

PsykotiK

the prices will go down more the closer it gets to t he end of the year.. I wouldn't limit myself to CPO cars either.. I bought a a model year newer with less miles than what i would have CPO

DeepBlue99

Fair point. With newer cars, CPO is not a huge factor. Still, I do like that bit of confidence that comes from knowledge that car is covered by Lexus beyond 1-2 years remaining on original warranty. Something I have done in the past was to pick out the best condition car I could find and then have them add the warranty. This brings the cost down a bit since dealer didn't have to do all the work to certify the car. Still end of the day, I had to get new tires and brakes within about a year or two. It's just kicking the can down the road.

IndyIS

One additional consideration to not forget is even though you're looking for a 2016 model year, there will be plenty that went into service in 2015 so as you're looking at the cars, look/ask for the in-service date since that can be additional bargaining power on your side.

For example, I bought my 2013 GS FSport in December 2015 with 27k miles and a CPO - it was considered a 2013 model year, and as such the dealer was trying to sell it as only a 2 year old car. However, the car had an in-service date of May 2012 so after much negotiating, I was able to convince the dealer (or wear them down) that the depreciation on that specific car was actually 3 1/2 years (the car was turned in after a 3-year lease ended, so only made sense to get 3+ years of depreciation since the person who leased the car paid that depreciation fee). I was able to get another $4500 off with this argument in addition to the almost $3400 discount they were originally offering.

In short, use all your tools to start looking for the car you want now vs. waiting until later if at all possible. And as many above stated, waiting until later in the year will get you a better price because most folks aren't spending money on cars during the holidays so any deal is better than no deal to a dealer. Good luck!

Riptide711

Buy a local CPO from a Lexus dealer. Check
Carfax and maintenance record from dealer if possible.
Negotiate.

Knucklebus

A really good time to shop for cars around here is Black Friday. Everyone is at the malls and nobody is in the dealership. Last time I bought a car on 2004 Black Friday my family was the only people in the dealership and they even tried to sell my 15 year old niece a car. I wound up getting a current year 2004 Mazdaspeed Miata after all rebates and haggling for $19,500 on a $26,000 stickered car.

On used cars, the amount of wiggle room is even greater. Use something like iseecars.com to see how long the car has been on the lot. I found a few bargains that weren't moving because of either market or conditions and they were very willing to deal on a car that wasn't getting any love.