AJLex19

Tesla still saying 3-6 months away for the standard battery which puts that at early 2019. Just saw a white model 3 on the road in my area this past weekend - exterior looked good but wasn't a fan of the wheels.

That standard price has always been a useful marketing tool (not only used by Tesla) as there really isn't much demand for a bare bones car anymore...folks want options! AWD I think is going to be a popular option which will never come in at the base price. I think we're all waiting to hear more about the base price of a 2020 or 2021 GS 500

ItzFilyO

Buddy of mine just scored one and he paid close to 60K for it after tax.

All4Lexus

I was researching some Lexus GS350 history for their last model year refresh. Announcements went out in April 2011 for the 4th generation.

Fact: We did not see any announcements of any design or major changes in April 2018 for the 2019 year (which will be the 8th year of a 4th year GS generation, one longer than usual 7 years)
Fact: Lexus continues to say there's nothing to see or new coming.

Fact: Cumulative 4th Generation GS sales is in the 6-7k units/year range, which compares to what the 3rd generation was doing in it's 6th year.

Fact: Gen 3 GS sales totals around 125k units for 7 years.
Fact: Gen 4 GS sales through Sept 2018 is currently at 117-118k (with 3 months left this year, and 12 months next year).

I presume Lexus wants to to hit the 125k sales mark and get there by extending the 4th Generation Model year by 1 into it's 8th year, and who knows what will happen afterwards.
This will consume up all remaining inventory supply, put it to use instead of it going into loss or waste.

Opinion: This business model may seem efficient to manage costs and be profitable on remaining GS parts inventory.
Opinion: Final year sales may range from 3-5k units. Lexus basically concedes the market to Kia Stinger/BMW-new 3series/Audi A5/S4's Outdated in tech and no CarPlay.

Opinion: 2019 Spring Auto shows will be the best gauge of whether there's any life in the GS line for 2020 and beyond.

Opinion: if 125k units is the real business model for supply chain orders and over a 7-8 year term, it's a risky business proposition at a time when the markets are shifting away to SUV's.
Opinion: New business models need to be on a 3-4 year cycle to stay relevant. This is something Lexus has to sort out and see if there's a real consumer interest. They cannot afford to build and hope buyers will be there. Tesla still is working down through their 300-400k order backlog.

Opinion: New GS, if there is such a thing, has to set itself apart from Stinger/A5/BMW G20/and emerging Cadillac CT5 to be relevant and interesting. The GS350 series is roughly valued at $900 million to $1 billion yearly revenue to Toyota, or close to $7-8 billion over the 7-8 year model generation life cycle. The financial guys are going to have to figure out if they can afford to 'dance with wolves' on a shorter generation lifecycle (eg 4 years) or devote these manufacturing resources on a product line that can be more profitable.

Verdict: The slow dance of carrying over more of the 2018 GS350 flavor into 2019 model year is a death blow to Lexus and uninspiring to potential buyers. Why should they buy a car with no clear future?

Prediction: I make this Lexus prediction based on the observation of what Cadillac did with their 'visionary' Escala car. It defined future model cues for their current CT6, upcoming CT4(for 2019) and 2020 CT5 (which replaces CTS and ATS models). Lexus has their Fuel Cell car vision in this link: https://www.lexus.com/concept/LFFC/ and you can see quite clearly a lot of design cues where they can evolve the GS into a sporty variant of this vision along the lines of what Cadillac is doing. It is boldly different than the ES and LS. The ES gets the spotlight to shine in 2019, like the LS500 did in 2018. Either this sedan flavor emerges or they go all in with a sporty cross over and turn the GS350 and RX350 as a post mortem after thought. I think the sporty cross over is distinctly different enough than the RX350 series that it offers a clean break towards a competitive 4-5 year product cycle (the latest RX350 generation started in 2015) where Lexus can focus on maximizing sales out of one platform (blended GS/RX instead of two separate branding endeavors). The warning bells are already sounding for the RX350 as a dated product. (look at 3rd generation RX350 2005-2012 to 4th generation RX350 2015-2018... yearly sales are strong for the first 3 and tapers off. It's interesting to note that 1 year of RX350 sales at around 110k units/year is 88% of what the GS350 will do over 8 years. Will we get a sporty sedan or a modernized sexy looking cross over (as the next level up over the RX350? and 2 or 3 engine performance levels and hybrid) I think we get the modernized sexy cross over, with limited production of it in sedan form. Sales rate at 125-175k units per year is talking big $$ return on capital expense and the financial guys will say it is a no brainer. Something will definitely get the spotlight for 2020 to ensure Toyota is firing profitably on all cylinders -- which is absolutely essential to survive any 'downturn' in the car markets due to rising interest rates and glut of sedans. April 2019 car shows will set the stage of Lexus' future to come.

jtrue28

That was well thought out. Good post!

ItzFilyO

Maybe they will only keep the GS line as the high performance GS F only and kill the rest of the GS line. The 200t is still the biggest joke in GS history BTW. A 4-cyl in a car this class and after making fun of Benz in an ad.

Maybe it'll be the same for RC line? The new facelift is coming for 2019 but maybe not a Gen 2?

UDel

I agree with that, don't know what they were thinking putting a 4 cylinder in a GS, it needed a affordable V8 option before it needed some lame 4cyl. Just doing a GS F won't work, it barely sells, almost no interest in it, why would they kill the rest of the line that sells much better and just keep the GS F that at most will sell in single digit numbers a month.