When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.
If the new model is out next year surely we would have news by now. Even my dealer says they think next year will be the last. Is it possible your data could be wrong?
If the new model is out next year surely we would have news by now. Even my dealer says they think next year will be the last. Is it possible your data could be wrong?
Just from an advertising / marketing standpoint I'd have to agree with this. Public would have heard something definitive by now if the refresh was next year....
As I personally worked for Toyota Motor (Engineering, not sales and bs) I can provide little to no hope of another GS model.
Another GS model makes no sense for Toyota/Lexus. It's baked in and done.
Sluggish market reaction and tesla acceptance doomed GS sales to languishing status. What was supposed to be a 7 year generation has been extended a few more with no changes, perhaps to burn off any remaining excess supply? If you think about the entire GS production run over 9 years, it adds up to between 125k-150k cars total sales, and translates into a measly 320 cars made per week.
No manufacturer is going to commit factory space and production line time for such low volume. Tesla is ramping up production consistently past 5k per week. To put this in perspective, Tesla could do in 2-3 weeks production to meet the yearly sales of a GS. That's a major no can do when you meet the yearly demand with only 4% of your yearly manufacturing capacity.
The GS U.S. sales slumped with the 2016 model year when they only offered the big ugly grill instead of having it only on the F Sport. They never learned from Acura's dumb mistake of their big beak grill, which cost them a lot of sales too.
The LS has half the sales of the GS from 2013+ (except in 2018), and the RC less than that, and both are still being offered. It will come down to a corporate decision in Japan on what to do.
Another GS model makes no sense for Toyota/Lexus. It's baked in and done.
Sluggish market reaction and tesla acceptance doomed GS sales to languishing status. What was supposed to be a 7 year generation has been extended a few more with no changes, perhaps to burn off any remaining excess supply? If you think about the entire GS production run over 9 years, it adds up to between 125k-150k cars total sales, and translates into a measly 320 cars made per week.
No manufacturer is going to commit factory space and production line time for such low volume. Tesla is ramping up production consistently past 5k per week. To put this in perspective, Tesla could do in 2-3 weeks production to meet the yearly sales of a GS. That's a major no can do when you meet the yearly demand with only 4% of your yearly manufacturing capacity.
It's baked in and DONE. Stick a fork in it.
here is another thing to think about. TMMK is making 240 ES350s everyday
I think a big redesign would really help the GS. The GS looks too much like a Toyota and people buying Lexus are trying to separate themselves from Toyota. Give us that and more power and they will have their numbers back up again. If people want something with better fuel efficiency and practicality they have the ES. Why not make the GS a performance sedan like it was meant to be and give it some more power.
here is another thing to think about. TMMK is making 240 ES350s everyday
87,360 per 52 weeks. That is not bad! In a SINGLE year, ES350 sales end up approximately 70% of the entire 8 year sales lifecycle of GS.
A 2nd dive into the GS numbers since 2012: (these are US sales numbers, not world wide) The latest GS generation has not broken cumulative 125k units yet in the US market.
What could cause a major drop off from respectable numbers in 2015? I think it's much more than the re-tooled grille story. 2016 is loaded with the latest safety features as standard.
The answer?
Take a hard look at the ramp up in global recognition and sales of the Model S. Lexus GS peaked in 2015 at 23,117 units in the US for the year.
Those who can afford a GS or GSF or GS450h really did look at Tesla Model S and X as an alternative. Buyers found an alternative hot and sexy cool vehicle. GS was not a cool car and became obsolete in a hurry.
Years 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 had Lexus/Toyota executives in denial, and unable to respond for an answer, and to this day their response has been one consistent with an "END OF LIFE" stamp written all over this sporty sedan variant 'in-between' the ES & LS series. Nothing really could revive this GS product. Not even CarPlay or Android Auto, more power, or a refreshed interior tweak can save it.
Toyota/Lexus are in business to make money and if they cant sell a product profitably or consistently -- it's time to move on. No sense in bringing out a GS product if it wont be competitive. The new kids on the block in the flavors of Kia Stinger (2018 sales = 16,806) , Genesis G70 (on pace for 11,965 units for 2019) outflanked Lexus GS with sporty performance and latest tech.
It's kind of revealing that in 2020, the cumulative Teslas on the market will exceed 1 million vehicles. The ramp up to 2 million and more will accelerate quickly with each gigafactory opening every 18 months to meet the order backlogs of Model S, X, 3, Y, Truck, Semi, Roadster variants. Cars sitting on the lot for conventional dealerships are quickly becoming an outdated 20th century business model. Everything stagnates and production volume is reactive and cannot be optimized.
Now that the CyberTruck is out --- what does that potentially mean to Toyota Tundra's which have been averaging around 118,000 units per year since 2014. Will we see a sales drop off in 2021/2022? This is exactly the "EMERGENCY" writing on the wall for Toyota. Lexus GS dropped by 33% for 2 consecutive years from 23k in 2015, to 14.8k in 2016, and 7.8k in 2017.
For comparison, Toyota Tundra could be potentially be looking at a sales drop from 118,000 units yearly to barely over 50k units if they follow the "GS is perfect, I am in denial about Tesla" head-in-the-sand business strategy. (note: Toyota Tacoma outsells Tundra by 2 to 1, so we'll just focus on Tundra as a simple example here, and just double the following numbers to represent the Tacoma).
Starting with recent 4 year average of Tundra sales for year 2021 (2021 118k, 2022: 77.9K, 2023: 51.4k)
CyberTruck will suck some sales from all truck OEMs, not just Toyota. Some more than others. Now all of a sudden the CyberTruck order-rvsp backlog of 250,000+ is looking very attractive, becoming a real market threat, and well positioned to any buyer seeking a $45k+ truck. How much more pizzazz can Toyota can do to make the Tundras sexy and cool by 2022 (hint: a lot more than a fancy grill and improved safety features) ? Likewise, Ford, GM, Chevy may face similar sales loss and identity crises of their own. The truck market is big enough to easily give Tesla a 5% share (or 10k monthly per 5%). (total monthly truck sales of all trucks in US ranges from 200k to 300k - see https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u...ures-by-model/ )
In closing, we have a better understanding what could have derailed the GS from 23k units in 2015 to a measly 3.5k units in 2019. It shows how lack of response to a competitive threat can influence the end of life for a brand when it is unchanged since 2016. It costs a lot of money to stay in business competitively, and even more $$ to reclaim former sales #'s and glory days. An ominous tone has been signaled to the truck industry. What may look like a gimmick or 'unfinished' prototype in the CyberTruck reveal can leave many dead in the water sales wise when it is finally released to market. Trucks are about to enter a new era of sexy, performance, and tech coolness, whereas a noise deafening monster engine and gas guzzling behemoth at 12 mpg becomes totally 'uncool'. By 2025 and with 4-5 Gigafactories running strong -- we will know exactly what kind of upheaval it has caused on the marketplace. Get your popcorn ready!
In regards to Tesla, the Cybertruck is really looking attractive to me and probably will place an order soon. I had just purchased a Tundra for my parents and was toying of one as a daily for myself but man that Cybertruck with self driving capabilities might be it.
12-03-19, 06:39 AM
