diablo1

I posted some of this info in another thread, but I wanted to start a new thread dedicated to the topic, since I think it's pretty interesting.

According to several threads on this site, and other sources, Lexus was originally planning around 80% of sales of the 2IS to be the IS 250 in its three forms, leaving only 20% of the model's sales for the 350. In other words, the 250 would outsell the 350 by about 4:1

I compiled this list of units sold per month from Toyota/Lexus monthly sales press releases:

Mar 06: 250 = 3,821, 350 = 1,389, ratio = 2.8:1
Feb 06: 250 = 2,710, 350 = 1,172, ratio = 2.3:1
Jan 06: 250 = 2,767, 350 = 1,306, ratio = 2.1:1
Dec 05: 250 = 2,877, 350 = 1,631, ratio = 1.8:1
Nov 05: 250 = 2,899, 350 = 1,548, ratio = 1.9:1
Total: 250 = 15,074, 350 = 7,046, ratio = 2.1:1

As you can see, the ratio is actually closer to 2:1, meaning that Lexus/Toyota definitely underestimated the demand for the 350. Also, their target was 40,000 units per year, and for the 5 months above, they have already sold 22,120, which would mean they are on pace to sell 53,088 cars from Nov 05 thru Oct 06.

Another interesting pattern is that the 250 sales are gaining relative to the 350 in recent months. In Dec 05, the ratio was as low as 1.8:1, whereas last month it jumped up to 2.8:1. So maybe a lot of "enthusiasts", who would be more likely to get the bigger engine, wanted to get the car when it first came out, and now that the initial demand has been satisfied, it's moving closer to the 4:1 ratio that Lexus predicted.

Just something I thought was interesting to share with y'all.

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

its not really "enthusiasts getting the 350, think about this, 4k-5k for 100 more hp and bigger brakes and probably other stuff is one of the best bargains ive ever seen for the car world, makes the 325 and 330 price/benefit ratio trash

PhilipMSPT

iTrader: (5)

You also have to consider that Lexus may have decided to sell the cars at 2:1 for now. It's not that the 350 is selling faster (because the 250 is also flying out of dealerships), but rather the output of cars available upon release.

The 350 gets all the rave reviews, but the 250 is what gets people to end up buying an 2IS. Some people will rather have less payments than a bigger engine. I think this will become more evident when people aren't paying MSRP but rather a well negotiated price.

I think that in time, Lexus will eventually sell the cars at 3:1 (instead of the 4:1 ratio they originally thought of). For now, the 350 has so much fire that it'll take a while till it cools off.

diablo1

Maybe "enthusiasts" isn't the right word, but I do think that people who got the car right when it came out are more likely to get the 350 because they are more likely to be into cars in general. Just a theory though - we'll have to see what happens in the next few months. Either way, to Lexus for probably beating their own sales projections...

Also good to see that March was the best month ever for the IS, and for Toyota/Lexus in general... Their stock is also trading above 110 today, the highest ever in the history of the company.

tqlla3k

iTrader: (1)

Just by looking at this
Mar 06: 250 = 3,821, 350 = 1,389, ratio = 2.8:1
Feb 06: 250 = 2,710, 350 = 1,172, ratio = 2.3:1
Jan 06: 250 = 2,767, 350 = 1,306, ratio = 2.1:1
Dec 05: 250 = 2,877, 350 = 1,631, ratio = 1.8:1
Nov 05: 250 = 2,899, 350 = 1,548, ratio = 1.9:1


you can see that the 250 is starting to pull way from the 350 in sales

diablo1

Well, there are also stories from a lot of people about dealers having 250's in inventory but needing to special order 350's. Obviously if they build more 250's they will sell more 250's, but I'm sure it works the other way as well - if 350's are selling so well, they will make more of them. Since the differences between the two cars are pretty small, I'm sure they can switch production back and forth pretty easily. The engine, transmission, drivetrain and brakes are the only material differences.

4TehNguyen

iTrader: (1)

the 350s are more rare than 250s so the 250 would obviously sell more, some 250s are sitting around on the lots whilel 350s are nowhere to be found

Ichigo

The 4:1 ratio actually makes sense to me. Of the very few 2IS's that Ive seen in my area, all of them are 250's, mine is the only 350.

diablo1

Yes I mentioned that in my first post. I'm curious to see if that trend continues.

kensteele

Are they sales to consumers or sales to dealerships? How do we know how special orders are counted? What is the timing on the report meaning do 250 and 350 numbers come in together and how about special orders? How do you know the factory can switch back and forth? How long does it take to produce a 250 vs a 350? What about the parts situation, how many parts on hand and what is the forecast? Are they changing their build schedule vs demand or have the decided to stick with their estimates? How many 350s have already been built? shipped? sitting in a port somewhere idle? is that counted as a sale? Are all dealership reporting? How accurate are the numbers? How did the 250 recall affect the numbers (reporting)?

For so few cars, that's a lot of questions that could change the numbers pretty drastically. Too many unknowns to draw conclusions on specifics IMO.

diablo1

To consumers

They are not counted until the car is sold

I don't see why they would come in at different times...

That was just a guess based on the cars being very similar. I don't know for sure.

I would think it takes the same amount of time, again because the cars are so similar, but this is also a guess.

I don't think anyone outside of the company would know that.

That does not affect these numbers, and no it is not counted as a sale.

Yes, all dealerships are reporting. These numbers come in very fast and are very accurate.

A recall would not affect these numbers.

GreyHound

iTrader: (1)

I was one of the 1389 in March. I feel privileged .
Actually just glad it got here

unit74

iTrader: (3)

I was a 250 buyer.............then I drove the 350. After that test drive, the 250 was no longer even under consideration for me.

Turkoman

With your numbers and the initial expectations of Lexus, that should leave behind thousand or more 250s on the lot each month since the production numbers for each model is set by Lexus a while in advance and not based on monthly or weekly demands. So whereever that 4:1 number came from, if that was the plan, for every 350 that they produced, they would have produced 4 250s. Based on the sales numbers and their "caught by surpise" demand for the 350, that should explain those hundreds or thousand of 250s sitting in dealer lots then.

I just wish some of those less in demand 250s would show up at the two dealerships that I looked at. Seems like they are being left out while there are thousands of 250s out there while people wait for the 350s to be produced.

Joking aside, the 250 will always outsell the 350. For any manufacturer, the least expensive and most expensive models are the most important. It may be 2:1 one month, 3:1 another month. Japanese car companies are masters at predicting demand in general. They always keep supply and demand well-balanced. I would seriously doubt that Lexus underestimated anything. They will keep supply tight for a while so that the buzz will grow for these "elusive" machines.

zomg!11

Exactly. I test drove the 250 first, and then the 350. the difference in the power is so significant that the 4-5k difference was of little significance. what a bargain. so i stretched out and said, meh, what's another 5 grand.