Another Timing belt question
02-06-11, 06:14 AM
#16
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I am working on changing his mind. I'll keep you guys posted.
I am also going to post this topic on the Sequoia board and see how the responses tally there as well.
I am also going to post this topic on the Sequoia board and see how the responses tally there as well.
02-06-11, 07:14 AM
#17
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Unfortunately, what seems like a minimum investment to keep the car running might very well be a burden for many in these economically stressed times. Yes it's important, but especially for those driving the older LS430s, they might just try to milk it that much longer due to the relative expense. $700-$1,000 is not considered a small investment. It's the sign of the times.
There is a lot to be said for living about the same way in both good times and bad times. Doing that essentially means that one never has to worry about having enough money.
02-06-11, 06:59 PM
#18
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As one who ground to a stop in the dead of winter with a broken timing belt from a seized water pump in a perfectly maintained Lexus LS after 75,000 miles and about five years after I literally drove it off the showroom floor, I wonder why people keep asking these types of questions.
Assuming $1k cost to change the TB and $20k cost to replace the motor, you need to get into a zone where the failure rate is approaching 5% to get a break even expected return for changing the TB. I have a feeling the risk of a TB belt breaking never gets close to 5% on toyota V8s, even with 200k miles on the car. Otherwise we'd hear a lot more belt failure stories. Sure this doesn't count for the much greater hastle factor of replacing an engine, or the peace of mind you get from maintaining your car properly.
02-07-11, 07:06 PM
#19
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Obviously this incident was an outlier and a good thing it was, otherwise we'd all need to move our TB change interval down to 50k miles....
Assuming $1k cost to change the TB and $20k cost to replace the motor, you need to get into a zone where the failure rate is approaching 5% to get a break even expected return for changing the TB. I have a feeling the risk of a TB belt breaking never gets close to 5% on toyota V8s, even with 200k miles on the car. Otherwise we'd hear a lot more belt failure stories. Sure this doesn't count for the much greater hastle factor of replacing an engine, or the peace of mind you get from maintaining your car properly.
Assuming $1k cost to change the TB and $20k cost to replace the motor, you need to get into a zone where the failure rate is approaching 5% to get a break even expected return for changing the TB. I have a feeling the risk of a TB belt breaking never gets close to 5% on toyota V8s, even with 200k miles on the car. Otherwise we'd hear a lot more belt failure stories. Sure this doesn't count for the much greater hastle factor of replacing an engine, or the peace of mind you get from maintaining your car properly.
By deferring maintenance, you eliminate a significant percentage of buyers for your used LS who will not even consider an improperly maintained car.
I'll stop now. Some of you will "get it" and others will not.
02-08-11, 07:03 PM
#21
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Also, in the case if a TB/WP change, assuming it doesn't break, once you change it, you are washed clean of your prior maintenance sins. Consider two cars with 150k miles on it, one had the TB/WP done at 100k, the other just had it done for the first at 150k. All else being equal, I'd pay more for the later car.
I wasn't implying that we shouldn't maintain our cars, but was simply trying to provoke some thought, and to have some of the trade-offs more realistically considered.
Last edited by vollandt; 02-08-11 at 07:25 PM.
02-08-11, 07:39 PM
#22
True in the case of items which are either broke or not broke, such as the TB/WP. However, on items such as fluids, the lack of maintenance is more insidious in the form of wear and not as easily discerned as a TB/WP. I believe the implication is that if an owner is fastidious enough to change the TB on schedule, the other items (particularly the fluids) will also have been changed on schedule. Else, perhaps not.
02-08-11, 08:16 PM
#23
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True in the case of a private party sale and if you did the maintenance at the stealer.. Otherwise don't expect such a return on your maintenance dollars.
Also, in the case if a TB/WP change, assuming it doesn't break, once you change it, you are washed clean of your prior maintenance sins. Consider two cars with 150k miles on it, one had the TB/WP done at 100k, the other just had it done for the first at 150k. All else being equal, I'd pay more for the later car.
I wasn't implying that we shouldn't maintain our cars, but was simply trying to provoke some thought, and to have some of the trade-offs more realistically considered.
Also, in the case if a TB/WP change, assuming it doesn't break, once you change it, you are washed clean of your prior maintenance sins. Consider two cars with 150k miles on it, one had the TB/WP done at 100k, the other just had it done for the first at 150k. All else being equal, I'd pay more for the later car.
I wasn't implying that we shouldn't maintain our cars, but was simply trying to provoke some thought, and to have some of the trade-offs more realistically considered.
You raise a good point with regard to value of a fresh TB change. Clearly a fresh TB change would be of more value. But speaking hypothetically, if I specifically knew an owner had delayed changing TB for the first time until 150k mile I would likely not buy the car because I would be paranoid that other maint stuff had also been deferred.
In general the key to high resale is to keep great records, I keep meticulous maint records - based on past experience, the potential buyers don't seem to care about where maint was done, they just seem impressed when I hand them the manila folder with every single maint receipt in it for my car (and that typically includes filters, oil and other parts for diy maint I have done myself).
Last edited by Jabberwock; 02-08-11 at 08:20 PM.
02-18-11, 08:55 AM
#25
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I notice everyone is determining when to replace their timing belts by mileage. What about age, if I only travel a few thousand miles per year should I not consider the life of the belt in years rather than miles?
02-18-11, 01:43 PM
#26
My mom's 2000 Honda Accord V6 (11 years old from delivery) with 52,000 miles had it's timing belt replaced recently. The car has remained outside in the blazing Florida sun for all of its life. The original belt on inspection looked equivalent to a new belt. No cracks, drying, or fraying. I've heard that OEM Lexus timing belts are extremely well made. It's always the owner's call and comfort level for replacing the timing belt with low miles but mucho years.
02-28-11, 04:37 PM
#27
I have an 05 LS430 with 106,000. I am scheduled to get this service done for just over $1,000 within 2 weeks. I will ask them to keep the belt so I can see it and maybe I'll take a picture if there is any damage or noticeable wear. This was a leased car from Miami and I got it with 64,000.
03-01-11, 08:46 AM
#30
As for the Timing belt. It's rubber and it tends to dry over time.