Mike_TX

With the recently-enacted Energy Act, the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards go to 35mpg by 2020. What will that do to large, V-8-powered luxury cars like the LS?

There will probably always be a market for these cars, but will Toyota/Lexus be forced to limit production to meet these strict standards across their entire lineup? Or will other engine types (diesel, hydrogen, whatever) be developed that improve mileage? Or will the LS be forced to downsize and resort to smaller-displacement, lower-power engines?

I figure the law will be watered down over the next few years as automakers struggle to meet these standards, but even if it gets delayed, the higher mileage requirements will eventually be applied.

So I see a future with smaller, lighter cars with smaller engines, and a switch to the availability of desirable accessories (nav, high-end sound, park assist, leather, etc.) in small cars. The carmakers now push people into higher-end cars to get these features, but they will use them in the future to help them sell the new-age "econo-cars".

The future is always interesting to speculate on ... What do you think?

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Neofate

iTrader: (1)

I think the technology is already here to acheive 35mpg with the same displacement and powered engines. It will simply cost more to build them. Not to worry, we aren't going to lose our 'power' in good 'ol America. We wouldn't stand for that =)

Though, the future is going to have a huge movement for Hybrid vehicles, and all Hydrogen/Battery, and potentially alternative fuels if they can ever decide on one or two to standardize.

The Gasoline engine won't be phased out in our lifetimes.. that is for sure.. But I can see in the next 10-15years it being a good 50/50 mix of hybrid or other variations and pure Gasoline engines.

In our kids, kids lifetimes the traditional pure gasoline engine will probably be a thing of the past on automobiles.
(I mean those of you like me.. in their 20's or even 30's .. with young kids, or about to have kids ) -- Not being 75 with a 20 yr old grandchild..

rominl

iTrader: (4)

overall it's still 12 yrs away, and right now the lexus norm is probably around 20? i think there is a good chance they can hit that. on passenger cars i don't think it will be an issue, it's the suv that are pulling down the avg for lexus now

plus there are news lexus is coming out with another hybrid next year, that should help too

dmvp29

When this happens, I'm going to buy myself one of these:

http://www.teslamotors.com/

Neofate

iTrader: (1)

Your about right, imo.

Your saying the Lexus overall average of all models is 20? If so, yeah sounds about right.

I know the LS 400's 1st gen avg about 24-25 (max at about 30) and heavy footed drivers or poorly maintained might grab a low 15'ish.

The Second gen LS 400's are slightly more efficient, and avg 25-27,..

The new ones.. I am not sure. I'm sure it is similar. Mid 20's counting city and hwy driving median.

That isn't bad considering it is a quad cam, 24 valve, 4.0 liter, 8 Cylinder in a V pattern.

I haven't really looked it up, but I would think the ES's and IS's.. maybe even GS's get slightly better mileage.

Now the RX series, hrmpph. =)
*Though best SUV's on the planet*

encore888

I'm guessing an LS 400h???

PatsSoxfan

Mike, I doubt the 35 mpg standard is going to be that difficult to attain for a car similar to the current LS in dimensions. New technological advancements even in the next 5-10 years will probably "blow us away". I would think that an LS hybrid with the new battery technology will be able to achieve 35mpg within about 5 years.

rominl

iTrader: (4)

it would be interesting to see that setup on the ls, but probably not until it gets significantly better gas mileage

Nospinzone

If Lexus was smart, they'd snap up Harley Davidson (HOG closed today @ $36.80, well below its high of $75+).

I get 50 mpg on my Deuce!

Mike_TX

I don't know, Pats ... if you listen to Lutz and Mulally and Ghosn and Detsche and others in the industry, they all seem to suggest that the current gasoline engine technology is roughly 99% as efficient as it's likely to get, considering both emissions and fuel efficiency. That's barring some kind of ground-breaking new technology, of course, which the automakers say they don't have in the works.

Diesel is roughly 15% more efficient, and is at roughly the same point in its development as the gasoline engine (even considering the new "clean" diesels). But diesel is in even shorter supply than gasoline because of the way crude oil refines down, and the price reflects that. So in pocketbook terms, it's no help, although it will help the fleet economy averages ... if they can sell enough of them.

Gas/Hybrid and Diesel/Hybrid technology at this point are both weak sisters, since they carry so much baggage with them. But they do help the economy numbers a little.

Electric? Yeah, someone in some Frankenstein lab somewhere might invent some new battery that will be cheap and reliable enough, and able to deliver enough range, for practical use. But of course, recharging all those batteries is a power grid nightmare of unbelievable proportions. Many experts say we're maybe 20 years - or more - from a real battery breakthrough that will make electric cars workable for the masses.

Ethanol? Fuggeddaboutit. If we devoted all the arable land in the country to growing corn, we'd be able to satisfy maybe 15% of our fuel needs. And there'd be none left to feed chickens and cattle and make Fritos. Besides, it takes more energy to make the stuff than it provides.

Hydrogen/Natural gas? Hydrogen fuel cell technology looks promising, but it would take tens of billions of dollars to put together the infrastructure to generate it, transport it and set up fueling stations. And it's pretty touchy technology. Natural gas would be easier from the delivery standpoint, but supply would eventually get to be a problem. And tanks of compressed explosive gas in your trunk isn't a fun thought. Mileage is pretty good, but they haven't worked out to convert it to miles per gallon.

It's a pretty big problem, and the automakers are sweating bullets already, since the standards start phasing in incrementally in 3 years. Some are flatly saying it's an impossibility, while others are saying it will just be the end of SUV's, trucks, and even big lux cars like ours.

I'll put it this way - I just hope Toyota can sell enough Corollas to keep LS's on the market!

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PatsSoxfan

You obviously have researched this problem very well, but I find it hard to believe that new battery or fuel cell technology will not get the job done. If we can put a man on the moon way back in 1969, I find it impossible to believe that we can not get much better fuel efficiency than we are now getting. If an all out effort is made it will get done...just like an all out effort placed an American on the moon back in the "Stone Age" ;-).

Mike_TX

LOL. Actually, I think it was GM's Bob Lutz who *did* compare it to putting a man on the moon. The difference, he noted, was that the American taxpayer was footing the bill for the moon shot but the Government is expecting the automakers to pay for this one.

I'm not trying to be fatalistic about it ... it'll get solved somehow or another. But I do expect smaller cars, like when the "gas crisis" of the 70's hit, and I'm not looking forward to going back to little econoboxes.

But, heck, they're not building any new roads, so I guess there won't be anywhere to drive anyway, right?

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flipicanez

iTrader: (1)

Damn soccer moms!!

Neofate

iTrader: (1)

Well put Mike. However I have to side with Patssoxfan here: I think we are on the brink of feasible battery and/or fuel cell hybrid or sole use of the Electric/cell technology alone.

Frankly the technology is here, just as the gasoline motor was here in the 1800's. IIRC Electric automobiles were created well before the combustion we all know today.. -- Though battery tech at that time was very crude compared to what we have today. So Combustion/Gasoline won out and evolved.

If it is truly a fact that we are at 99% efficiency in our design of the gasoline combustion engine then I would put forth the argument that we are at , at best 40-50% efficiency and development of the Electric application of the automobile.

I see it as a technology that never evolved due to the time in which is was brought about. Combustion took over, and funding and popularity (mainstream) was driven that direction and it took over. Now is the paradigm shift, which is not a want,.. but a direct *need*, a must for the future of personal transportation. So the Electric model is being redirected with interest and funds.

Given this I can see it 'evolving' very quickly and , again, being a feasible solution.

This isn't to say it is the only, or THE gasoline combustion engine of the next 50-100 years.. but it is certainly capable of doing the job.

As we all know electric engines run at peak torque from zero RPM then HP linearly picks up through a fairly long band.

I think the latest figures on modern Electric tech. is 200+ miles per 'charge',.. something like 3-4 hours to charge,.. and they have developed batteries than last 100,000+ Miles as a standard rating.

Interesting topic, and more than that something everyone can relate to. Never has our society been so open and ready for a change in the design of automobiles -- Directly proportionate to the price of oil/gasoline and the longevity of such and it finally sinking in the problem is not only not going away, but getting worse at an accelerating rate =/

I am with you on the Bioalcohols/Biogasolines -- It just doesn't seem feasible with our current chemistry and engineering to rely on that for the solution. Possibly an intregal part of a multi-faceted, ecclectic approach to alternative fuel sources.. but I strongly think we will have to standardize a main fuel source for it to work economically.

Time will tell

kens97sto

One thing to keep in mind is that the CAFE stadards force the makers AVERAGE fuel economy accross the fleet of cars they produce... I am not sure if Lexus will get to use Toyota in that since they recently "officially" are separate now.. But since Toyota sells lots of Prius, Corrolla, Camry.. etc that get close to the 35 MPG.. they will really have to focus only on the cars that get really bad mileage... I am pretty sure that trucks and SUV's are rated seperately...

I drive a 94 LS... It's making 250HP and gets about 23MPG hwy. The new LS460 Is making 380HP and gets about the same MPG. Would it really be that much of a sacrafice to go back to the power of the original car?? I would bet that it would still be faster than my car with that 8 spd auto and get much better mileage with all the other new engine managment systems they have developed since the Ucf10 came out in 1990.

Have great day...

Ken