SW17LS

Yeah Lexus leases aren't great, unlike many BMW and MB leases.

riknchar

Yep. The first 3-4 years are incredibly steep depreciation curves. The depreciation cost curve starts to flatten out a bit in years 3-6, and really flattens out after 6-8 years. That's what makes the 2010-2012 model years a perfect target right now, especially with the availability of relatively low mileage, well-maintained cars from this vintage at great prices. The depreciation of the 2013-2015s has been pretty rough lately, but that too should really flatten out over the next year or two (I mean, how low can it go, realistically?). I think the strategy of buying 6-8 year old LSs, driving them for 3-4 years, and trading out for another 6-8 year old LS probably minimizes depreciation costs and minimizes (mostly) costly repairs.

FatherTo1

Just an update for anyone still following...

So, may have had the first inklings of regret selling the LS 460. I test drove a couple of 2016 Model X locally and am really unhappy with the ride quality. I took the family to get their thoughts on the different seat configurations and level of comfort. Everyone was dazzled by the FWD (Falcon Wing Doors), of course. We spent a good 45 minutes inspecting one particular X and my Mom discovered one of the middle seats didn't tilt (switch wasn't working) and the X is a 2017, fairly still new. The faulty seat also contributed to why the third-row headrest was scuffed because the middle seat is supposed to automatically inch forward when you put down the third row. Since the passenger middle seat (6-seat configuration) isn't working properly, it contributed to the third row headrest making contact with the seatback of the middle chair and scuffing it.

This was also the first time I saw and learned of a long-standing issue with the FWD leaving a gouge on the paint and body. Tesla still does not have a permanent solution for this. Here is an example video I found online:


So, spending upwards of $70K on a used Model X with subpar ride quality, fitment issues, and electrical gremlins has soured me on the X. I almost thought, maybe it is time to go back and get a long wheelbase LS this time on coils. I thought about it some more though and realized I'm just not an SUV kind of guy. Ignoring all of the issues with the X, I didn't particularly enjoy the higher seating position nor driving the beast (except acceleration was fun). Just like I didn't really like driving our previous Sequoia all those years ago. I have always preferred full-size sedans or sport sedans.

Tesla took away free lifetime unlimited Supercharging on their used inventory on 7/19/2019, but then brought back the perk this past Saturday, 8/3/2019, except it only applies to new or "new inventory" cars and the perk only stays with the car (not transferable to next owner). Well, like I said, I always liked full-sized sedans and the S was my dream car at the time we bought the LS 460. If we're prepared to pluck down 70-large for a used X, why not just go for a new Raven S for a few thousand more (and qualify for tax rebates)? The new Long Range Model S has a more efficient drivetrain, 370-mile range(!), 3.7-sec 0-60 (!!), practically every option included sans Full Self-Driving, and has a new and more supple air suspension. I am sold on the idea and will be test driving the S with family this Saturday. Wish me luck!

FatherTo1

I also want to add, after the X test drive I immediately started looking at better tires since we all know how much tire quality can affect the ride on the LS. Well, I was further disappointed to learn that the X has a staggered wheel setup 265/45/20 fronts and 275/45/20 rears. You can go with 22s too but that will just make the ride worse. There is very limited tire selection for the X and I certainly can't throw a set of Pirelli P7+ on the crossover (I checked). However, the same Pirelli P7+ that fits the LS 460 will fit perfectly on the Model S standard wheels!

So that was the final nail in the coffin. The Model X build quality, ride quality or lack thereof, and complicated tire maintenance just wasn't worth it to me. I am hopeful Model S build quality has improved over the past seven or so years, just like Model 3 assembly improved.

riknchar

Or just spend $25-30k on a well-maintained 2010-2012 LS600hL that originally sold for $125k! Depreciation will have been almost done, and a bumper-to-bumper CNA warranty can be had for around $3k to provide peace of mind for the air suspension, hybrid batteries, etc... Just a thought for you... I know you had lusted after the LS600s for a while, and they are in a totally different category in terms of build quality, silent cabin, luxury leather, etc.

FatherTo1

Thanks, riknchar. That indeed is a tremendous value and tempting to drive the ultimate LS. I did test drive a 2010 600 and loved the immediate throttle response and CVT. At the same time, I felt our previous Ultra Lux SWB 460 had just barely enough trunk space and a 600 would lose even more trunk space while providing a roomier interior. It is a tough trade-off for me to accept. I did learn something from our ~2.5 years with the SWB LS 460 though, the extra legroom of a LWB is a daily benefit whereas the reclining rear seats were seldom used by our family except for long road trips when the wife needed a nap. Sometimes she napped just fine without reclining the rear seat. All she needed was one of those airplane neck pillows or just sit in the front seat. This time around, if we land back into LS territory, I think a regular LWB with bigger trunk will suit our family better. It would be amusing if this journey leads me right back to where I started.

I will be sure which direction to go after this weekend. The build quality aspect never bothered me about the Model S and so I don't know why it bothers me more with the Model X. My original plan was to move to the Model S and the wife suggested we get the Tesla SUV. I figured, why not? The wife (and the majority of driving public) definitely likes crossovers/SUVs more than I do. My concern with the Model S is that it sits too low for my older parents to get in and out. At the same time, I suppose we can just use Mom's RX to shuttle the family around when we all go out together. I just enjoy driving my own car. Like someone else once posted, get the car for 90% of your needs and not to serve the 10% use case. I think the Model S will accomplish the 90% quite well; will know for sure after Saturday's test drive and evaluation of the new air suspension design.

mikesrx350

I am not the type to say I said so,
but ____ read the thread exactly my thoughts months ago
wish you luck

FatherTo1

Thanks, Mike, and I'm okay if you do say it. I can admit if I made the wrong choice. I'm still attracted to the Model S and hope it meets our needs in key areas that matter to us -- performance, storage, and comfort. Comfort is the last part to be verified. As great as the LS is, I just don't want to go back to an ICE car now. EVs are the future...at least in my mind. With 370 miles of range, the latest Model S should calm most people's "range anxiety".

*For an ICE car, my Dad's 06 LS 430 that I'm borrowing is still impressively smooth and quiet.

mikesrx350

appreciate you father of two

there is a windshield and a rear view mirror
the windshield is 20 x the rear for a reason the past is the past
you will find what you want and with Mike in your ear, I will tell you what to get that I was blown away with if you want the X

I looked at the Audi Q8 suv
what a vehicle cutting edge in all ways
its the Lamborghini suv for 1/3 the price

I know you have a budget of 70 but take a look because I get the sense you like tech

cheers good luck it was meant to be you came to your decision before it was to late

mikesrx350

those wheels are optional and I saw them live there a non negotiable make the truck an A+ and I am not a suv guy
amazing vehicle

mikesrx350

forgot to say

besides the ride and the quality control issues and ergonomics
the S is now five year old technology

if you really desire an s wait six months when the new one is out the existing one will make you regret it in many ways

FatherTo1

Clever, Mike.

I forgot, of course another area is reliability, where Lexus shines best. Newer Model Ses are far more reliable than the early renditions. And I found our LS 460 was not quite as reliable as the LS 430. They don't build them like they used to, not even Lexus. After all, you can't sustain a business if your customers only replace their Lexus every 20 years.

FatherTo1

I remember reading about the Q8 announcement and then seeing one on the road a few weeks back. I never understood why they elected to make it a 5-seater only. I understand that gives everyone more room but I feel SUVs should offer more utility and carry more passengers. I like the Q7 a lot but have zero interest in the Q8. It looks too plasticky in the front, like a toy car. When I saw it on the road I certainly did not desire it. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate your suggestions, Mike, and for helping me consider options.

*I couldn't find the words earlier, but now I can express my feelings about the Q8....it looks goofy to me, like an FJ-Cruiser.

jrmckinley

Musk has stated publicly there are no major changes to the upcoming Model S. I wouldn't be concerned about buying a 2016-2019 S because the 2020 S will make you regret it... I'd be more concerned that when the Audi eTron GT comes out (late 2020) you'll potentially regret having an S. I'm pretty dead set on making the move to EV but I'm waiting to see the eTron GT in person first. It may very well be the first new car I've ever purchased...it's just stunning.

SW17LS

I don't think Musk plans on updating the car the way we're accustomed to carmakers updating cars...