Self-Driving Vehicles
#421
I think you're being a little naive. You're saying that in 50 years we will never have better speech recognition than we do now? 100 years from now? You seem unable to look past the limitations we have today. Look at what we had 50 years ago and compare that to what we have today. To somebody 50 years ago the technology we have today would seem impossible.
Luckily new generations come along and aren't hindered by their own biases about what we can and can't achieve.
I have no doubt eventually we will have self driving cars. That we will have computers that we can talk to and converse with just as easily as we do another person. Just because something has "hit a wall" now, doesn't mean the advancement that will break through that wall isn't right around the corner.
Luckily new generations come along and aren't hindered by their own biases about what we can and can't achieve.
I have no doubt eventually we will have self driving cars. That we will have computers that we can talk to and converse with just as easily as we do another person. Just because something has "hit a wall" now, doesn't mean the advancement that will break through that wall isn't right around the corner.
#422
Technology is advancing, but there are certain technologies that have pretty much hit a brick wall. For instance tech like speech recognition, hand writing recognition, or even text to speech - these technologies have advanced to a point, and then got stuck in a half assed state because they exhausted their potential and reached the practical limit.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/10/...curacy-record/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...andwriting.ime
my phone transcribes voicemail into text and i almost never need to actually listen to the voice mail these days.
more and more phone calls are being taken AND INITIATED entirely by computers. some are better than others, but the better ones are pretty incredible, allowing entire conversations with only one human on the line. and since the computers work 24 hours a day, answer the phone right away, and get better continuously, and cost a fraction of actual call centers, the latter are in their last dying breath.
we will never have self driving cars that do not require a human drivers.
#423
The question is not "Can it react fast enough?". Computerized systems make decisions hundreds or thousands of times every second.
The question is "Can it react correctly?". Humans react "correctly" because we continually learn and we continually learn because we have been taught since we were old enough to understand what is happening around us. But we do not know what we are teaching and what we are learning, so it is extremely difficult to "teach" (program) a computer with everything that we know, especially when it comes to something as complex as reacting to something as haphazard as human and motor vehicle traffic.
#424
oh really?
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/10/...curacy-record/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...andwriting.ime
my phone transcribes voicemail into text and i almost never need to actually listen to the voice mail these days.
more and more phone calls are being taken AND INITIATED entirely by computers. some are better than others, but the better ones are pretty incredible, allowing entire conversations with only one human on the line. and since the computers work 24 hours a day, answer the phone right away, and get better continuously, and cost a fraction of actual call centers, the latter are in their last dying breath.
it's actually self-fulfilling... as drivers 'do less', are distracted more, they will basically become useless in the vehicle anyway and anyone with common sense wouldn't want 'that' person having anything to do with driving! now i do believe while some cars will be smarter than others, that there will be situations (as you've outlined over and over) where a car basically 'gives up' and just pulls over and stops. at that point the occupants can get out and walk, or request another car to come pick them up. it will work itself out.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/10/...curacy-record/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...andwriting.ime
my phone transcribes voicemail into text and i almost never need to actually listen to the voice mail these days.
more and more phone calls are being taken AND INITIATED entirely by computers. some are better than others, but the better ones are pretty incredible, allowing entire conversations with only one human on the line. and since the computers work 24 hours a day, answer the phone right away, and get better continuously, and cost a fraction of actual call centers, the latter are in their last dying breath.
it's actually self-fulfilling... as drivers 'do less', are distracted more, they will basically become useless in the vehicle anyway and anyone with common sense wouldn't want 'that' person having anything to do with driving! now i do believe while some cars will be smarter than others, that there will be situations (as you've outlined over and over) where a car basically 'gives up' and just pulls over and stops. at that point the occupants can get out and walk, or request another car to come pick them up. it will work itself out.
We may not yet be at the point where we can carry on a real-time, one-on-one argument with a machine, but for most day-to-day, question-and-answer-with-instructions interactions (such as when you are initially calling a bank or calling to make a voice order as opposed to online shopping), voice recognition now works quite well.
The problem with in-car systems is background noise and (very) limited memory space. Voice recognition is a memory hog: interact with a large computer (over the phone or over the internet) is not a problem but interacting with a hand-held (including in-car system) without a large computer backup is not very good.
#425
oh really?
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/10/...curacy-record/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...andwriting.ime
my phone transcribes voicemail into text and i almost never need to actually listen to the voice mail these days.
more and more phone calls are being taken AND INITIATED entirely by computers. some are better than others, but the better ones are pretty incredible, allowing entire conversations with only one human on the line. and since the computers work 24 hours a day, answer the phone right away, and get better continuously, and cost a fraction of actual call centers, the latter are in their last dying breath.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/10/...curacy-record/
https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...andwriting.ime
my phone transcribes voicemail into text and i almost never need to actually listen to the voice mail these days.
more and more phone calls are being taken AND INITIATED entirely by computers. some are better than others, but the better ones are pretty incredible, allowing entire conversations with only one human on the line. and since the computers work 24 hours a day, answer the phone right away, and get better continuously, and cost a fraction of actual call centers, the latter are in their last dying breath.
Here's another good example, think a computer can be coded to read that accurately? When it gets to an a combination of letters that can be rearranged several possible ways, there's no way for it to differentiate which one is right - it takes a human mind to do that.
Last edited by Och; 03-13-17 at 11:32 AM.
#426
There is no question the technology isn't perfect now. But I'm really surprised that anybody doesn't see a future where this and many other technologies will be perfected...including technology we can't even conceive today.
Remarkably short sighted to think otherwise IMHO.
Remarkably short sighted to think otherwise IMHO.
#428
Yes, I've read that as well. The "robots" will have the higher intelligence and will be taking us humans over! Not saying it couldn't happen, but I have to wear my tin foil hat as I write this. I'm waiting for the 2nd season of Westworld to see if it actually happens.
Last edited by dseag2; 03-14-17 at 08:16 PM.
#429
it's actually self-fulfilling... as drivers 'do less', are distracted more, they will basically become useless in the vehicle anyway and anyone with common sense wouldn't want 'that' person having anything to do with driving! now i do believe while some cars will be smarter than others, that there will be situations (as you've outlined over and over) where a car basically 'gives up' and just pulls over and stops. at that point the occupants can get out and walk, or request another car to come pick them up. it will work itself out.
By and large I see see increased automation of the driving experience as a boon for safety but also a slippery slope that is currently on a fine line. In reality it is very possible to be a human driver and maintain a very acceptable level of safety most automobiles currently on the road even today (and not just brand new ones). But in a future where it is an optional thing that is not required of someone, the less you engage in this skill the less you will be suited for it compared to a machine that does not suffer any distraction of fatigue and can see in 360 degrees all the time and which never gets rusty on the particulars.
It is my hope that the limitations of human beings as drivers who choose to fairly constantly engage in the practice exactly as we do today will be tolerated while the extremely obvious problems of distraction and inebriation will be eliminated through countermeasures embedded in devices as well as in the vehicles themselves.
All the more reason for anyone who actually likes doing this to continue using the steering wheels, pedals, gearshifts (if applicable), training, perception and intuition and put down the distractions and refrain from driving when we aren't in an alert enough state to drive.
We'll all be using self-driving appliances in one form or another but in the far future not everyone will want to drive themselves and it may be relegated to a minority of society no matter the age of the person in question but I hope there is still respect for those of us who wish to put in the effort, work and evaluation time with complete seriousness to either maintain driving qualifications and for the younger people to build up those qualifications and maintain them from the start.
Last edited by KahnBB6; 03-15-17 at 01:57 AM.
#430
^^^ good post.
as far as those wanting to continue to drive in the future, it should still be possible, with two caveats... insurance may become much more expensive for those who choose to still drive, and the car is likely to intervene by itself if it detects any 'inappropriate' driving. it's also likely the car will be sending all telemetry directly to the insurance provider anyway, so reckless driving will mean more than risking a ticket, your insurance will simply be canceled.
as far as those wanting to continue to drive in the future, it should still be possible, with two caveats... insurance may become much more expensive for those who choose to still drive, and the car is likely to intervene by itself if it detects any 'inappropriate' driving. it's also likely the car will be sending all telemetry directly to the insurance provider anyway, so reckless driving will mean more than risking a ticket, your insurance will simply be canceled.
#431
I have no doubts that autonomous driving is in our future, and there are at least 40% of drivers that I currently encounter that I wish had it already. No movement at green lights, swerving into other lanes, taking a left from the right-hand or middle lane, driving lower than the speed limit. You name it. It may actually make life for those of us who actually focus on driving more pleasant. I may be willing to make higher insurance payments to keep traffic safe.
#432
I missed this news, but California DMV recently released rules for self-driving cars to operate on CA roads.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/10/tech...page_tech_pool
The (fully) autonomous driving car is in our future, and it may be here sooner than we think or care for. Och, stay away from CA !!
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/10/tech...page_tech_pool
The (fully) autonomous driving car is in our future, and it may be here sooner than we think or care for. Och, stay away from CA !!
#433
If the focus here is on autonomous driving, I will offer a different perspective. Someone told me his friend owns a mess of car dealerships in the xth largest city in the nation. He is trying to over the next 10 years, get out of the business. He doesn't see this as being a growth industry nor profitable in the near future. Demographics are changing. The younger generation is not interested in cars as you and I are, and were. To use an example, this person cited his own daughter, who is one of those under 27 power brokers on Wall Street. She has never owned a car, and has no interest in ever owning a car. Now, some of this is because she's lived in Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, blah blah blah. Her generation uses a smart phone app and a car arrives to take them where they need to go.
My son is 3. Will he ever need to know how to drive a car? Easily, the answer is NO. When I was in Scandinavia in the late 90's, I was amazed how everyone I knew did not have a driver's license, and they were all in their mid 20's. this will be the case in the USA eventually.
You think car dealers resort to some pretty shady tactics to generate profits today? Wait until 2027!
My son is 3. Will he ever need to know how to drive a car? Easily, the answer is NO. When I was in Scandinavia in the late 90's, I was amazed how everyone I knew did not have a driver's license, and they were all in their mid 20's. this will be the case in the USA eventually.
You think car dealers resort to some pretty shady tactics to generate profits today? Wait until 2027!
#434
If the focus here is on autonomous driving, I will offer a different perspective. Someone told me his friend owns a mess of car dealerships in the xth largest city in the nation. He is trying to over the next 10 years, get out of the business. He doesn't see this as being a growth industry nor profitable in the near future. Demographics are changing. The younger generation is not interested in cars as you and I are, and were. To use an example, this person cited his own daughter, who is one of those under 27 power brokers on Wall Street. She has never owned a car, and has no interest in ever owning a car. Now, some of this is because she's lived in Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, blah blah blah. Her generation uses a smart phone app and a car arrives to take them where they need to go.
My son is 3. Will he ever need to know how to drive a car? Easily, the answer is NO. When I was in Scandinavia in the late 90's, I was amazed how everyone I knew did not have a driver's license, and they were all in their mid 20's. this will be the case in the USA eventually.
You think car dealers resort to some pretty shady tactics to generate profits today? Wait until 2027!
My son is 3. Will he ever need to know how to drive a car? Easily, the answer is NO. When I was in Scandinavia in the late 90's, I was amazed how everyone I knew did not have a driver's license, and they were all in their mid 20's. this will be the case in the USA eventually.
You think car dealers resort to some pretty shady tactics to generate profits today? Wait until 2027!
#435
Apple testing self driving Lexus' in Phoenix