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(preface : been a way a while busy with work, but still trudging along with my x plaid)
My first time back in Shanghai, a city of more then 25M residents, in more than 5 years. Things have changed quite a bit in that time, but the thing that most stands out to an auto enthusiasts as myself is the widespread adoption of EVs!
When I was here 5 years ago, it was all ICEs with some Teslas around, but rarely, and all the many taxis there were LNG powered. Now, it's actually more rare to see ICEs and almost the entire taxi fleet are EVs! The EV industry in China is bustling with tons of different makes and models to choose from, whether it's the (rare) Tesla or (more common) BYD, Nio, and Zeekr in sedan, SUV, or even and interesting van style. They're everywhere. How things have changed so much in such a short amount of time (especially after the 2years of covid lockdowns is incredible.
Some thoughts on this:
- America is losing fast in this ev race. Our reluctance to adapt and adopt will make us followers in all automotive EV areas for a while (sans Tesla, though they are slowly being marginalized by the Chinese now as well).
- China is now the world's largest car market and I hardly see any American brands around, whereas before GM had a good foothold there. As the Chinese transition to EVs and the US makes this topic a political one, we'll continually to languish around the world.
- Tesla was smart in getting a foothold in the Chinese market, but even though don't have a large footprint as other brands. As Europe continues to accelerate EV adoption (due to high oil/gas prices), it will soon make ICE a niche American market.
- It will be interesting to see if the newer American EV companies like Rivian, Lucid, etc. pivot to China market as well. You need volume to survive and China unequivocally can get you that with 1B+ consumers there.
Tesla is only US manufacturer that can stand ground to Chinese invasion of the world, vehicle wise. Similar to what Apple is doing today in phone world.
Hopefully they dont get stuck on 2m in sales otherwise it will not stand a chance. GM is not present in Europe and Ford is not present in China (in significant numbers), I dont know what Stellantis is and they dont know either so those big 3 are definetly not worldwide manufacturers anymore.
Europe lost our manufacturing skills in most areas, automobile manufacturing will probably be the same. What will happen in both USA and Europe in next 5-8 years is that, like Toyota and Hyundai before, you will have Chinese manufacturers investing in factories and product suited to those markets. So politicians will be happy enough.
Some thoughts on this:
- America is losing fast in this ev race. Our reluctance to adapt and adopt will make us followers in all automotive EV areas for a while (sans Tesla, though they are slowly being marginalized by the Chinese now as well).
- China is now the world's largest car market and I hardly see any American brands around, whereas before GM had a good foothold there. As the Chinese transition to EVs and the US makes this topic a political one, we'll continually to languish around the world.
- Tesla was smart in getting a foothold in the Chinese market, but even though don't have a large footprint as other brands. As Europe continues to accelerate EV adoption (due to high oil/gas prices), it will soon make ICE a niche American market.
- It will be interesting to see if the newer American EV companies like Rivian, Lucid, etc. pivot to China market as well. You need volume to survive and China unequivocally can get you that with 1B+ consumers there.
excellent post. i 100% agree not just america, but all non-chinese brands are in denial, confusion and complacency about their future place in the world.
i don't think rivian or lucid will make any measurable dent in the chinese market without new models and probably a chinese partner.
the u.s. thinks tarrifs will keep chinese cars out but it won't. byd already has a commercial plant in the u.s., and i believe is planning on making a plant in mexico so will bring them in that way. it's only a matter of time. even if it takes 5 or 10 years to make it happen, the chinese play the long game, not stupid obsessions with quarterly results.
i just hope the robots arrive before i get very old so they can take care of me.
i now have 2 vacuuming/moppng robots and a pool robot. the cars are becoming robots. resistance is futile.
Another point on perceived Chinese quality: I can't speak for their reliability, but the interior of some of them puts to shame my 100k model S/x. It looks and feels on the same level of a German luxury car. Speaking of which, I hardly see any now save for some more exclusive ones.
I do agree with ST430, there’s absolutely no room for complacency, but as someone who has visited China several times, usually on business but also on US government business as an advisor to the State Department, I’d just note that the wealthy and vibrant side of China we see when we visit places like Shanghai and Hong Kong is carefully cultivated and doesn’t necessarily represent the bigger picture across the country and economy as a whole. But yes, China plays the long game and they are getting ready to eat our lunch.
America is so far behind China, it's not even funny. I haven't been to Shanghai or Beijing in some time, I can imagine how much things have changed since my last visit. Once they are able to bring cars into the North America, it's going to be game over for the auto industry, so I understand why keeping them out is important for legacy automakers
Tesla being in China is one of the most fascinating things to ever happen in any industry. Reading the tea leaves says Tesla and the Chinese government have an unwritten rule that Tesla gets to set up factories in exchange for China stealing but not stealing wink wink Tesla's tech.
Ultimately it makes the industry stronger, long term any company monopolizing technology leads to stagnation.
Tesla may (still) be the only foreign automaker granted the ability to operate in China as a wholly foreign-owned enterprise (WFOE) and thus able to do business there without a local JV partner. So Tesla does have a complex and usual relationship with China.
Tesla being in China is one of the most fascinating things to ever happen in any industry. Reading the tea leaves says Tesla and the Chinese government have an unwritten rule that Tesla gets to set up factories in exchange for China stealing but not stealing wink wink Tesla's tech.
Ultimately it makes the industry stronger, long term any company monopolizing technology leads to stagnation.
Tesla never patented their tech, so...jokes on China?
Tesla never patented their tech, so...jokes on China?
lol in a way. Tesla does have a pile of patents but promised not to patent troll just for the sake of it. That doesn't mean Tesla will let you steal all their ideas, see Rivian lawsuit.
I just want to make one more comment in this thread. The Polestar is an example of a Chinese made EV, and it's really well made. It's weaknesses are price, and software, although software is getting better and better. It's a car that I would hold on to as a commuter and buy out the lease if the buyout price was reasonable. I've had relatively good luck with it, and at almost 36k miles it's held up well. I don't know how the battery pack and electrical components will hold up after 100k, but Polestar promises 300k.
If the Chinese cars are half as good and priced competitively, even Tesla will have to up their game. Software would probably be the biggest issue, but most people won't care, especially if they have traditional buttons and *****
07-28-24, 11:56 PM
Thoughts on EVs from China...
